NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

NY NJ PA WEATHER CONSULTING

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Spring-like conditions return!

4:54 PM

It’s amazing how much weather conditions can change in less than 24 hours!  Just this morning, overcast conditions dominated and the regions was still soaked from the five day rainfall event!  This afternoon, conditions could not be much different with clear skies and much warmer temperatures as highs blew past forecasted temperatures into the upper 50’s to mid 60’s throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.

The ability for this new air mass to warm could not be clearer and given that this air mass and the tranquil weather conditions are expected to remain over the northern Mid Atlantic through the end of this week and into the weekend, I have significantly bumped up expected high temperatures throughout the rest of this week.  I know think that this weekend has the potential to experience temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s, especially over the Delaware River Valley.  I could even make a case for a 70 degree high somewhere around Philadelphia, but I think this will be a rather rare and isolated observation at most.

The next rain threat returns to the region on late Sunday night into Monday morning in the form of a slow moving cold front.  This cold front will be able to produce periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms may approach severe levels if the air mass ahead of this cold front on Sunday afternoon becomes significant unstable, which is something to keep an eye on.  Otherwise, given the state of the area’s rivers, the potential for heavy rain will enhance flash flooding concerns once again.

High pressure returns once again for Tuesday and Wednesday, but this time a Polar air mass will take hold with significantly cooler temperatures throughout the northern Mid Atlantic.  High temperatures will return to the 40’s and 50’s once again for Tuesday and Wednesday as a result.

Clearing skies expected as warmer conditions take hold

7:30 AM

For the first time in five days I can say that no rain is falling at any locations throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area!

The IR satellite picture basically tells the tale for today as clouds will continue to break up and skies will clear throughout the region.  The slow moving, rainfall record breaking low pressure system over the Atlantic is finally exiting stage right and will produce plenty of rain for mariners in the Atlantic.  High pressure will take hold through the day today as temperatures rebound into the 50’s for many locations.

Through the rest of this week, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature for the northern Mid Atlantic.  The Pacific air mass that has built into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area this morning will continue to moderate steadily with high temperatures approaching the 60’s by the end of this week and breaking through the 60’s over the Delaware River Valley by this weekend.

A strong cold front is expected to impact the northern Mid Atlantic by late on Sunday with increasing clouds in the afternoon followed by periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.  The rainfall may end up being rather heavy at times with the threat of flash flooding once again throughout the region.  The cold front will exit on Monday morning, which will likely create havoc for the Monday morning rush hour.

High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday with initially cool conditions on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the 40’s however a rebound into the 50’s is expected by Wednesday.

Low pressure on the way out, but one more round of rain expected

4:30 PM

There are signs that the low pressure system that has brought over 3 inches of rain or more throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area is finally starting to exit.

Pressure rises are being observed throughout the northern Mid Atlantic ranging from 1 to 3 MB per hour and the center of the low pressure system has weakened by rough 2 MB in the past hour up to 998 MB as of 4 PM.  The upper and mid level low pressure systems are currently positioned off the Delaware Coast and slowly drifting south and east this afternoon.  In particular, the 700 and 850 MB low pressure system are driving deep Atlantic moisture right into southern New England down through Delaware, leading to the development of widespread showers.  These showers range in intensity from light rain and drizzle to a brief yet impressive heavy downpour.  Overall, it is just plain wet and raw out side with temperatures in the 40’s and what seems to be no end in sight.

However, the pressure rises do tell us that the storm is ready to finally exit and as such the moisture advection off the Atlantic will slowly dissipate this evening and overnight.  As the showers come to an end after midnight, the threat for fog, locally very dense, will be possible throughout the region but especially along the coast.  The combination of light winds and plenty of low level moisture will support the potential for fog on Tuesday morning before drier air from the west can mix in.  Afterwards, skies will clear by Tuesday afternoon with much warmer conditions expected with highs in the 50’s.

A quiet week is expected as high pressure remain in control through Saturday.  Along with the tranquil weather will come moderating temperatures with the potential for highs in the lower to mid 60’s throughout the region.  The Delaware River Valley stands the best chance for these warm conditions as down sloping winds allow for temperatures to warm more significantly than along the coast.

Another cold front is expected on Sunday night with periods of rain, heavy at times, and embedded thunderstorms.  This cold front may pose the first true threat for isolated elevated severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning.  The cold front will exit on Monday morning followed by clearing skies and cooler temperatures, however overall conditions for the start of next week will be much better than what has been seen at the start of this week.

Another round of heavy rain on the way

11:20 AM

It’s the low pressure system that just won’t quit.

Another round of moderate to heavy rain is currently moving through southern New England and is expected to rotate through Connecticut, Long Island, the New York City metropolitan area, much of New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.  The heaviest rain is expected to be focused along the immediate coast with additional rainfall amounts of up to a half to three-fourths of an inch of rain.  Winds will continue to back to the northwest through the evening around 5 to 15 mph.

This round of rainfall should be the last significant area of rainfall to impact the northern Mid Atlantic before this storm exits into the Atlantic.

Flash Flooding Analysis

8:05 AM

The following rivers are at various stages of flooding via the latest updates from the National Weather Service:

MAJOR FLOODING:

Pompton Lakes- New Jersey

Pompton Plains- New Jersey

Little Falls- New Jersey

Boonton blw Reservoir- New Jersey

Pine Brook- New Jersey

Raritan River- New Jersey

MODERATE FLOODING:

Mahwah- New Jersey

Wanaque- New Jersey

Chatham- New Jersey

Millington- New Jersey

Blackwells Mills- New Jersey

Pemberton- New Jersey

MINOR FLOODING:

Gaylordsville- Connecticut

Mah-Suffern- New York

Rivervale- New Jersey

Macopin- New Jersey

Bound Brook- New Jersey

Manville- New Jersey

Low pressure slowly exits, but another cloudy, damp day expected

7:30 AM

Another day and more rain.  That’s the best way to describe this dreary Monday morning.  Once again, the upper low that has plagued the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area since Thursday continues to drive Atlantic moisture into the northern Mid Atlantic.

A 996 MB surface low roughly 200 miles southeast of Long Island is slowly exiting into the Atlantic.  However, the persistent northeasterly flow at almost all levels of the atmosphere continues to drive showers and periods of moderate rain into the coastal plain.  The heaviest rain is near an end as lifting will continue to weaken over the region, leading to the showers to become more scattered in nature and weaker overall.  The cool, damp conditions this morning will linger into the afternoon with temperatures remaining in the 40’s through the day.

This storm finally exits the coast this evening with clearing skies.  A few isolated showers will still be possible into the early morning of Tuesday, however dry conditions can be expected by sun rise.  High pressure will begin to establish an influence on the region tomorrow afternoon through Saturday.  High pressure, centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, will produce a drying west to northwesterly flow over the region.  This northwesterly wind will down slope off the Appalachian mountains through this week, which will allow temperatures to warm into the 50’s and potentially lower to mid 60’s as the week continues.

The next rain event will not be until Sunday afternoon as a very slow moving cold front with plenty of moisture ahead of the frontal passage will approach the Mid Atlantic.  This cold front will have the potential to produce widespread heavy rain and flash flooding Sunday evening through early Monday morning.

Preliminary Storm Recap

4:10 PM

Another round of rainfall is expected tonight with this storm, however the worst conditions are over.

The storm developed initially as a frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast.  As a strong upper low started to drive towards the Mississippi Valley, the low and eventually mid level winds began to veer to the southeast off the Atlantic.  As strong lifting started to develop off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast, a coastal low developed off the South Carolina coast and tracked towards the Ohio Valley Thursday evening through Friday evening, which produced periods of moderate to heavy rain.  High pressure over Quebec helped enhance the pressure gradient leading to increasing easterly wind ranging from 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, however the worst was yet to come.

The 500 MB low finally entered the Tennessee Valley early on Saturday morning, which spawned a second coastal low off the Delaware Coast.  This coastal low also back tracked initially towards central Virginia while intensifying to 994 MB.  This low pressure system was under the influence of tramendous mid and upper level lifting due to the intense 500 MB low.  The 850 MB low level jet stream intensified due to this lifting and drove an intense area of heavy rainfall.  The heavy rainfall was able to draw the wind gusts from this 850 MB low level jet stream to create wind gusts of 40 MPH to as high as 75 MPH.

This morning, the low pressure system became vertically stacked, which means the 500 MB, 700 MB, 850 MB, and surface low are all directly over each other.  This has caused the storm to weaken rapidly and is now moving east into the Atlantic.  Another round of light to moderate rain is expected as the low pressure system exits, but not with the same intensify in terms of rainfall rates nor wind gusts.

The following are official reports from the National Weather Service of this storm.

NEW JERSEY

…ATLANTIC COUNTY…

HAMMONTON             4.23   800 AM  3/14

BUENA VISTA           3.67   800 AM  3/14

ATLANTIC CITY         2.96   800 AM  3/14   INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

LINWOOD               2.90   800 AM  3/14

…BURLINGTON COUNTY…

WRIGHTST/MCGUIRE      3.17   800 AM  3/14

BURLINGTON            2.94   800 AM  3/14

PEMBERTON             2.93   800 AM  3/14

MEDFORD               2.92   800 AM  3/14

MOORESTOWN            2.81   800 AM  3/14

MOUNT HOLLY NWS       2.17   700 AM  3/14

MANSFIELD SQUARE      2.09   800 AM  3/14

…CAMDEN COUNTY…

WINSLOW               3.66   800 AM  3/14

BERLIN                2.80   800 AM  3/14

…CAPE MAY COUNTY…

WOODBINE              3.61   800 AM  3/14

SEA ISLE CITY         2.81   800 AM  3/14

WILDWOOD              2.62   800 AM  3/14

WILDWOOD CREST        2.62   800 AM  3/14

STONE HARBOR          2.60   800 AM  3/14

CAPE MAY HARBOR       2.55   700 AM  3/14

GREEN CREEK           2.55   700 AM  3/14

SEAVILLE              2.20   700 AM  3/14

…CUMBERLAND COUNTY…

VINELAND              3.70   700 AM  3/14

MILLVILLE             2.90   800 AM  3/14

UPPER DEERFIELD       2.50   800 AM  3/14

…GLOUCESTER COUNTY…

FRANKLINVILLE         3.73   700 AM  3/14

…HUNTERDON COUNTY…

READINGTON            4.68   800 AM  3/14

LEBANON               4.04   800 AM  3/14

FLEMINGTON            3.95   800 AM  3/14

CALIFON               3.29   800 AM  3/14

BETHLEHEM             3.14   800 AM  3/14

HOLLAND               2.47   800 AM  3/14

…MERCER COUNTY…

LAWRENCE              3.78   800 AM  3/14

PENNINGTON            3.33   800 AM  3/14

HAMILTON SQUARE       3.16   800 AM  3/14

EWING                 3.10   800 AM  3/14

…MIDDLESEX COUNTY…

SOUTH AMBOY           6.08   900 AM  3/14

SOUTH PLAINFIELD      5.12   800 AM  3/14

PLAINSBORO            4.11   830 AM  3/14

CRANBURY              3.71   800 AM  3/14

…MONMOUTH COUNTY…

BELMAR/FARMDALE       2.31   800 AM  3/14

…MORRIS COUNTY…

MONROE                4.85   800 AM  3/14

RANDOLPH              4.79   800 AM  3/14

KINNELON              4.75   800 AM  3/14

CHESTER               4.56   800 AM  3/14

MENDHAM               4.56   800 AM  3/14

ROXBURY               4.29   800 AM  3/14

WASHINGTON CORNER     3.72   800 AM  3/14

PARSIPPANY            3.59   800 AM  3/14

ROCKAWAY              3.46   800 AM  3/14

MOUNT OLIVE           3.42   800 AM  3/14

BOONTON               3.31   800 AM  3/14

DENVILLE              3.22   800 AM  3/14

…OCEAN COUNTY…

SOUTH TOMS RIVER      3.44   800 AM  3/14

BERKELEY SHORES       3.05   800 AM  3/14

TOMS RIVER            2.40   800 AM  3/14

POINT PLEASANT BEACH  2.31   800 AM  3/14

…SOMERSET COUNTY…

BRIDGEWATER           4.72   800 AM  3/14

SOMERVILLE            4.39   800 AM  3/14

HILLSBOROUGH          4.36   800 AM  3/14

MONTGOMERY            3.98   800 AM  3/14

…SUSSEX COUNTY…

HARDYSTON             4.65   800 AM  3/14

ANDOVER               3.32   800 AM  3/14

VERNON                3.03   800 AM  3/14

SUSSEX                2.61   800 AM  3/14

WANTAGE               2.57   800 AM  3/14

SPARTA                2.10   800 AM  3/14

…WARREN COUNTY…

STEWARTSVILLE         2.73   930 AM  3/14

BLAIRSTOWN            2.30   800 AM  3/14

PHILLIPSBURG          2.00  1000 AM  3/14

KNOWLTON              1.89   800 AM  3/14

PENNSYLVANIA

…BERKS COUNTY…

BIRDSBORO             3.09   800 AM  3/14

WEST LAWN             2.13   800 AM  3/14

MOHNTON               1.74   800 AM  3/14

KUTZTOWN              1.52   800 AM  3/14

READING               1.20   800 AM  3/14

FLEETWOOD             1.19   800 AM  3/14

…BUCKS COUNTY…

BENSALEM              2.88   800 AM  3/14

…CARBON COUNTY…

BOWMANSTOWN           1.75   800 AM  3/14

LEHIGHTON             1.42   800 AM  3/14

JIM THORPE            1.41   800 AM  3/14

PALMERTON             1.18   800 AM  3/14

…CHESTER COUNTY…

UNIONVILLE            2.82   800 AM  3/14

NOTTINGHAM            2.10   800 AM  3/14

KENNETT SQUARE        2.00   800 AM  3/14

…LEHIGH COUNTY…

ALLENTOWN             1.77   800 AM  3/14   INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

SLATINGTON            1.58   430 AM  3/14

…MONROE COUNTY…

MT. POCONO            1.42   800 AM  3/14

…MONTGOMERY COUNTY…

HATFIELD              3.46   800 AM  3/14

NORTH WALES           3.00   800 AM  3/14

ROCKLEDGE             2.90   800 AM  3/14

AMBLER                2.79   800 AM  3/14

SOUDERTON             2.72   800 AM  3/14

WILLOW GROVE NAS      2.43   800 AM  3/14

HARLEYSVILLE          2.30   800 AM  3/14

GILBERTSVILLE         1.85   800 AM  3/14

KULPSVILLE            1.85   800 AM  3/14

BECHTELSVILLE         1.66   830 AM  3/14

…NORTHAMPTON COUNTY…

GLENDON               1.93   800 AM  3/14

…PHILADELPHIA COUNTY…

PHILADELPHIA          3.11   800 AM  3/14   INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

PHILADELPHIA/NE       2.30   800 AM  3/14

CONNECTICUT

…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…

CANOE BROOK LAKE      3.80   700 PM  3/13   MESONET

DANBURY               2.66  1100 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

DANBURY               2.53  1011 PM  3/13   ASOS

…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…

BRANFORD              2.80  1230 AM  3/14   PUBLIC

NEW HAVEN/TWEED       2.61  1017 PM  3/13   ASOS

MERIDEN               1.80   700 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

MERIDEN               1.68  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

…NEW LONDON COUNTY…

OLD LYME              3.04  1035 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

GROTON/NEW LONDON     1.64  1005 PM  3/13   ASOS

COLCHESTER            1.62   700 PM  3/13   MESONET

NEW JERSEY

…BERGEN COUNTY…

LYNDHURST             3.44   100 AM  3/14   PUBLIC

NORTH ARLINGTON       3.43   645 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

RAMSEY                2.93   900 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

TETERBORO             2.15  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

RIDGEWOOD             2.00   700 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

FRANKLIN LAKES        1.92   406 PM  3/13   MESONET

TENAFLY               1.76   700 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

…ESSEX COUNTY…

NEWARK                4.21  1012 PM  3/13   ASOS

CALDWELL              2.84  1008 PM  3/13   ASOS

…HUDSON COUNTY…

NORTH BERGEN          5.16  1045 PM  3/13   MESONET

HARRISON              4.59  1045 PM  3/13   MESONET

JERSEY CITY           3.97  1045 PM  3/13   MESONET

HOBOKEN               3.56  1045 PM  3/13   MESONET

KEARNY                2.04   645 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

SECAUCUS              2.02   645 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

…PASSAIC COUNTY…

HAWTHORNE             2.10  1033 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

…UNION COUNTY…

ELIZABETH             6.62  1100 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

ROSELLE PARK          3.51   600 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW YORK

…KINGS COUNTY…

BROOKLYN              3.61   810 PM  3/13   COOP

…NASSAU COUNTY…

EAST MEADOW           3.93  1201 AM  3/14   SKYWARN SPOTTER

MUTTONTOWN            3.29  1045 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

MASSAPEQUA            2.25   930 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

MILL NECK             1.09   800 AM  3/13   COCORAHS

…NEW YORK COUNTY…

NYC/CENTRAL PARK      3.64  1010 PM  3/13   ASOS

…ORANGE COUNTY…

HARRIMAN              2.90   730 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

…QUEENS COUNTY…

SOUTH OZONE PARK      3.27  1159 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

NYC/LA GUARDIA        2.61  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

NYC/JFK ARPT          2.06  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

…SUFFOLK COUNTY…

STONY BROOK           3.16  1200 AM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

MOUNT SINAI           2.93   820 PM  3/13   NWS EMPLOYEE

ORIENT                2.68  1020 PM  3/13   PUBLI

ORIENT                2.68  1055 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

MONTAUK               2.50  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

SHIRLEY               2.45  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

ISLIP                 2.38  1000 PM  3/13   ASOS

UPTON                 2.37   700 PM  3/13   NWS OFFICE

ISLIP                 2.33  1220 AM  3/14   SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTHPORT             1.97   707 PM  3/13   MESONET

WESTHAMPTON BEACH     1.93  1015 PM  3/13   ASOS

FARMINGDALE           1.57  1013 PM  3/13   ASOS

BAITING HOLLOW        1.52  1055 AM  3/13   PUBLIC

…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…

WHITE PLAINS          1.32   830 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION            PEAK WIND    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS

GUST       OF

(MPH)   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…

DANBURY                 40   654 PM  3/13   ASOS

…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…

NEW HAVEN/TWEED         46   505 PM  3/13   ASOS

MERIDEN                 36   752 PM  3/13   ASOS

…NEW LONDON COUNTY…

GROTON/NEW LONDON       59   812 PM  3/13   ASOS

NEW JERSEY

…BERGEN COUNTY…

FORT LEE                66   634 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

TETERBORO               59   859 PM  3/13   ASOS

BERGENFIELD             52   605 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

…ESSEX COUNTY…

CALDWELL                55   605 PM  3/13   ASOS

NEWARK                  45  1002 AM  3/13   ASOS

NEWARK                  45   844 PM  3/13   ASOS

…HUDSON COUNTY…

JERSEY CITY             50   621 AM  3/13   MESONET

HARRISON                45   730 AM  3/13   NWS COOP

BAYONNE                 41   525 AM  3/13   MESONET

KEARNY                  41   339 PM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

KEARNY                  41   124 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

NEW YORK

…BRONX COUNTY…

PELHAM BAY PARK         55   515 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

…NASSAU COUNTY…

JONES BEACH STATE       67   350 PM  3/13   COAST GUARD

BAYVILLE                63   435 PM  3/13   MESONET

JONES BEACH ISLAND      63   240 PM  3/13   MESONET

…NEW YORK COUNTY…

NYC/CENTRAL PARK        53   345 PM  3/13   ASOS

…ORANGE COUNTY…

MONTGOMERY              39   713 PM  3/13   ASOS

…QUEENS COUNTY…

NYC/JFK ARPT            75   833 PM  3/13   ASOS

BREEZY POINT            67   330 PM  3/13   MESONET

NYC/LA GUARDIA          48  1001 AM  3/13   ASOS

NYC/LA GUARDIA          48  1001 PM  3/13   ASOS

…SUFFOLK COUNTY…

BLUE POINT              67   302 PM  3/13   MESONET

FIRE ISLAND             67   700 PM  3/13   COAST GUARD

AMITY HARBOR            66   621 PM  3/13   MESONET

FARMINGDALE             60   636 PM  3/13   ASOS

SHIRLEY                 56   340 PM  3/13   ASOS

SHIRLEY                 56   539 PM  3/13   ASOS

WESTHAMPTON BEACH       55   502 PM  3/13   ASOS

ISLIP                   54   346 PM  3/13   ASOS

EAST SETAUKET           53   445 PM  3/13   PUBLIC

SOUTHAMPTON             53   625 PM  3/13   MESONET

LINDENHURST             48  1100 AM  3/13   SKYWARN SPOTTER

FISHERS ISLAND          47  1105 AM  3/13   MESONET

NAPEAGUE                43  1038 AM  3/13   MESONET

GILGO BEACH             40   245 AM  3/13   MESONET

…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…

WHITE PLAINS            62   629 PM  3/13   ASOS

LARCHMONT               46   919 AM  3/13   HARBOR MESONET

Showers linger through tomorrow morning, excellent conditions on the way

11:20 AM

The area of low pressure responsible for widespread flooding, coastal flooding, and wind damage is finally starting to weaken over the central Mid Atlantic this morning.

The surface low and upper level structure of the storm have become vertically stacked.  What this means is the surface, 850 MB, 700 MB, and 500 MB low pressure systems are all on top of each other.  What this causes is a kind of joking off of the rising motion of the atmosphere, thus the surface low and other features begin to weaken as the strengthening and maintaining processes of the low pressure system comes to an end.

The result of this situation is that showers and the isolated yet strong thunderstorms associated with this storm will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will slowly exit to the east-northeast into the New England coastal waters and eventually into the north Atlantic by Monday evening.  In the meantime, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue.  Any additional rainfall will only enhance the current flash flooding that has developed over many of the rivers, streams, and urban locations throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.

The good news is that winds that have been from the east and northeast the past three days will now shift to the northwest, which will drive the coastal waters that have flooded by bays and roadways along the coast back into the Atlantic.

Once this storm exits on Monday morning, gradual improving conditions will take hold on Monday afternoon as high pressure gains control of the region.  High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the week and into next weekend with tranquil weather conditions and steadily modifying temperatures.  High temperatures on Friday and Saturday in fact could be in the lower to mid 60’s over many locations just away from the coast, especially over the Delaware River Valley.

A strong Polar cold front will approach on Sunday into Monday with a return of widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Although this cold front is not expected to produce nearly the amount of rainfall that this storm has produced in the large scale, any additional rainfall will lead to the threat of flash flooding.