NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

TROPICAL SEASON FORECAST ISSUED!

WHY THE RAIN JUST WON’T STOP

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!!

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A THREAT EACH DAY

RAINY PATTERN STARTING TO MAKE A DENT IN DROUGHT!

DROUGHT PAGE UPDATED FOR JUNE

FOCUS ON 5 DAYS AT A TIME, AND YOU WON’T GO NUTS

LOCAL FORECAST DISCUSSION

Updates on the bottom!

12:08:05 PM: Isolated weak showers and thinderstorms are developing across the region.

12:09:17 PM: The thunderstorms are generally weak with brief downpours, occasional lightning, and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

12:09:48 PM: The thunderstorms are developing and moving east rapidly.

2:58:35 PM: The showers moving through NE PA, N and C NJ, SE NY, and CT are capable of producing brief heavy downpours.

2:59:35 PM: ONe area of showers is producing a tenth to a quarter inch per hour over NW NJ and NE PA. No severe thunderstorms have developed thus far.

3:14:24 PM: A line of moderately strong thunderstorms is diving south and east through central Pennsylvania.

3:14:24 PM: A line of moderately strong thunderstorms is diving south and east through central Pennsylvania.

3:15:12 PM: This line of thunderstorms will move through the entire forecast area this afternoon and early evening.

3:15:46 PM: While not severe, the thunderstorms will be capable of occasional lightning, small hail, heavy downpours, and wind gust up to 50 mph.
5:43:42 PM: A severe thunderstorms has developed over southern New Haven County, CT and moving towards the Long Island Sound and eastern Long Island.

5:44:25 PM: This thunderstorm is capable of wind gusts over 60 mph, penny size hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning strikes.

5:44:53 PM: This thunderstorm is moving east-southeast at 15 mph.

7:02:46 PM: The showers over eastern Pennsylvania are rapidly weakening as the sun sets and the atmosphere stabilizes.

7:03:10 PM: I do not expect these showers to have much of an impact on the Mets/Phillies game.

7:03:53 PM: However the wind blowing from the west around 10 to 15 mph will likely have a significant influence on fly balls.

8:22 AM

The upper level pattern is starting to go into a period of changes over the next seven days that will at least blunt the constant barrage of disturbances that have moved through the forecast area the past few days.  Let’s take a look at the water vapor this morning!

The most import detail to note this morning is that the trough axis has shifted from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes and western Pennsylvania.  This shift is very important as this is a sign the trough is about to lift into the Canadian Maritimes.  Also, note the weak disturbance over western Ontario.  That disturbance will eventually intensify into another closed low pressure system over the central Great Lakes and will take hold by the end of the weekend.  Between now and Sunday night though, the upper level winds and 500 MB pattern will be in a state of flux, which means that disturbances that do move through will be very weak and will be more focused towards the north and east of the Mid Atlantic.  

Now, for those that got and read the News Letter, I pointed out that a change that could bring potentially warmer and dry conditions to the forecast area could be an intensification of the trough off the West coast.  The latest guidance is starting to hint at that potential, especially towards the end of the week.  As the new trough over the Great Lakes lifts towards Quebec on Wednesday, the ridge over the Gulf Coast and Mississippi Valley will build into the Mid Atlantic along with warmer and more humid conditions.  However, before we get to that point, the forecast area will have to deal with another round of disturbances, showers, and potential severe weather.  

For today, expect clear to partly cloudy skies as the region is in between two upper level disturbances.  The trough axis and the upper level disturbance associated with the trough axis will swing through the region late this afternoon through the overnight hours, producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The majority of the lifting with this feature will be focused over the northern Hudson Valley and New England, so any shower or thunderstorm will be weak and likely brief in duration.  

On Saturday and much of Sunday, the forecast area will be on the western side of the trough which will provide generally dry conditions over the forecast area for this weekend.  I still can’t rule out a weak mid level disturbance producing a weak isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be far better than what was experienced last weekend.  Temperatures will generally average near to slightly below normal with highs in the 70’s and lower 80’s.

The new upper low and reestablished trough takes hold on Sunday night and Monday with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The low pressure system will be weak and the precipitation will be no where near as organized as compared to previous upper level lows this season.  

Another round of cold fronts will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Otherwise, partly cloudy skies can be expected with temperatures near normal.  On Thursday, high pressure will begin to build into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley, providing clear skies and temperatures breaking into the upper 80’s for highs.

8:00 AM

The upper level environment throughout the Tropical Atlantic is becoming more favorable for development this morning.  An upper low is slowly moving east through the western Caribbean this morning, touching off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The upper low will continue to move to the east towards the Yucatan Peninsula by this evening.  No development is expected with this upper low.  The rest of the Caribbean is generally quiet due to the shear from the upper level low.  However, a weak wave entering the eastern Caribbean is showing some signs of life and may have to monitored in the next few days.  Any development will be slow however.  The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet as no other disturbance has shown much sign of development despite a much more favorable environment for development.  Finally, an upper low over the central Atlantic is starting to produce a weak surface feature.  There is a slight chance that this disturbance becomes a warm core or tropical system in the next few days.  However, the potential for this is relatively small.

7:46 AM

Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expect through the early afternoon hours.  A weak disturbance will approach from the west and touch off a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours, otherwise partly cloudy skies are expected.  On Saturday, weak high pressure will provide clear and dry conditions through the afternoon hours.  A weak disturbance will approach from the southwest on Saturday night with increasing clouds, however dry conditions are expected through mid night.  On Sunday, a weak area of low pressure to the south will produce variable cloud cover and widely scattered showers, especially over the Delaware Bay and southern New Jersey coast.

Winds will be from the west around 10 to 20 mph through this afternoon.  Tonight through Saturday, winds will remain from the west but decrease to 5 to 15 mph through the period.  On Saturday night, winds will be variable around 5 mph.  Winds will veer to the southeast and south around 5 to 15 mph on Sunday.  

Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70’s for highs this afternoon.  On Saturday, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 60’s for morning lows and rebound into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s for highs.  On Sunday, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 60’s for morning lows and rebound into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s for afternoon highs.  

Water temperatures will range from the upper 60’s to mid 70’s throughout the forecast period.  The warmest waters will be found in the Delaware Bay and off the southern New Jersey coast.

Wave heights will range from 1 to 3 feet through the period.  Higher swell can be expected in and around thunderstorms.

Updates on the bottom!

1:43:51 PM: Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the forecast area.

1:44:58 PM: As the disturbance over weastern Pennsylvania approaches, shower and thunderstorms will increase in coverage.

1:45:57 PM: The atmosphere is becoming more unstable and increasing wind shear will support severe thunderstorms.

1:48:18 PM: The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, large hail, frequent lightning, and wind gusts over 55ph.

1:49:15 PM: An isolated tornado is possible but not likely. Flash flooding is more of a concern.

8:01:36 PM: Widely scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are currently moving through the forecast area.
8:07:35 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Queens and Nassau Counties of NY through 8:30 PM.

8:08:15 PM: This thunderstorm is capable of 60 mph gusts and penny size hail. The thunderstorms is moving towards the east around 20 mph.

8:08:43 PM: Another severe thunderstorms has developed over Scranton, Pennsylvania.

8:09:19 PM: This thunderstorm is capable of wind gusts over 60 mph and nickel size hail. The thunderstorm is moving east around 20 mph.

8:10:01 PM: The upper disturbance associated with these thunderstorms is moving towards the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

8:10:35 PM: The most impressive lifting from this disturbance is focused north and east of the region, over the northern Hudson Valley and New England.

8:11:18 PM: However, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat through tomorrow morning as this disturbance moves east.

8:12:28 PM: A line of showers and weak thunderstorms over northern Sussex County, NJ and entering the Hudson Valley may impact the rest of NYC.

8:14:05 PM: This line of showers and thunderstorms is expanding south towards Warren County.

8:14:27 PM: There is potential for these showers to impact the Bronx in roughly 2 hours.

8:14:59 PM: Meanwhile, scattered small thunderstorms have started to develop over the western suburbs of Philadelphia.

8:15:26 PM: These thunderstorms are weak, but capable of brief heavy downpours.

8:19:11 PM: Flash flood warning through 8:45 PM for northern New Haven County, CT.

8:20:09 PM: Thunderstorms are starting to intensify over SE PA this evening. Thunderstorms are becoming strong with potential for small hail.

7:24 AM

Another day, another round of thunderstorms.  The upper low that remains over the central and eastern Great Lakes this morning will send yet another strong disturbance through the forecast area later this afternoon and evening.  However, before diving into the forecast, I just want to touch on the developments from yesterday.  

The thunderstorms from yesterday certainly were strong to severe, however they were also scattered.  I want to bring that point up to show how the nature of this pattern will be a hit or miss when it comes to rainfall amounts this month.  Much like in June where New York City doubled rainfall amounts, the slow moving thunderstorms over Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, portions of northeastern Pennsylvania, and central New Jersey have already given the month of July a head start in pushing rainfall amounts to above normal.  Meanwhile, New York City received very little precipitation.  Thus the nature of convective precipitation and the effects the nature of this precipitation has on rainfall amounts for a monthly perspective.  On to the forecast!

I want to share some good news right off the bat.  This upper low is weakening and starting to open up.  This means that each disturbance from this point on will be weaker and the precipitation will be more scattered and eventually isolated in nature.  

The disturbance from yesterday continues to drive north and east into New England this morning.  This disturbance continues to produce heavy rainfall over northern New Jersey, especially over Sussex County, and into the Hudson Valley.  A dry slot, the result of sinking air around the heavy showers and thunderstorms, is driving from central/southern New Jersey through Long Island and into much of western and central Connecticut this morning.  This disturbance will continue to lift north and east through the morning hours with slowly clearing skies in its wake.  

Another disturbance is currently over the eastern Ohio Valley and driving towards the Mid Atlantic.  This disturbance is weaker than preceding disturbance, however the potential exists for this disturbance is cause some trouble with strong to severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours.  The air mass has not changed at all.  Temperatures will remain warm, generally in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s depending on how fast the low clouds clear over a locations.  The combination of cold air aloft and a rapidly warming and moist boundary layer will produce an air mass that is moderately unstable.  As the disturbance approaches, wind shear will intensify once again from a vertical and horizontal plan.  In other words, the wind direction will change from the south at the surface to the west at 500 MB, which will produce an environment for mesoscale low pressure systems to develop.  Also, a strengthening upper level jet maximum (strong winds at 500 MB) will lead to the potential for strong wind gusts in these thunderstorms.  With wind shear, there remains a threat, although slim, for isolated weak tornadoes this afternoon and evening.  The best threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will run from central New Jersey into the Hudson Valley and Connecticut, which includes all of the New York City metro.  However, all locations will be under the threat of these thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms will be isolated and widely scattered at first, however a line of thunderstorms should develop by the evening hours with more widespread coverage.  This development is more likely for Long Island and Connecticut though.  

As this disturbance exits tonight, the upper low will continue to move into a rapidly weakening stage of development.  The core influence of the upper low will lift north into New England on Friday.  However, another disturbance will rotate through the forecast area with widely scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms.  The severe threat will likely move into the Hudson Valley and Connecticut.  

Through this weekend, the upper low will open into a trough and begin to lift north and east.  Weak disturbances will continue to rotate through the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday, however the showers and thunderstorms will be isolated in nature with most locations seeing partly cloudy skies.  Temperatures will run into the mid 70’s to lower 80’s through the weekend.  

A new trough will become established over the Great Lakes on Monday.  High pressure will depart slowly through the day on Monday, which will lead to increasing clouds.  An area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi Valley into the Mid Atlantic on Monday night with periods of rain through much of Tuesday.  An upper low will reestablish itself over the Great Lakes once again with another round of disturbances rotating through the region on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.  The first of these disturbances will likely be weak due to the influence of the departing low pressure system.  Temperatures through early next week will average slightly below normal with temperatures in the mid 70’s to lower 80’s for highs in the afternoon.

6:54 AM

A strong upper low over the central Caribbean is moving to the west this morning.  Strong upper and mid level shear will continue to prevent any tropical development in the Caribbean over the next 48 hours.  The Gulf of Mexico also remains quiet as surface high pressure will produce clear conditions through the next three days.  Shear that has plagued the central tropical Atlantic and the African coast is completely gone.  In its place, upper level high pressure dominants with favorable conditions for development.  However, disturbances coming off the African coast remain weak and tend to collapse.  No development is expected for at least the next 48 hours.

6:46 AM

A few showers will linger this morning, otherwise partly cloudy skies can be expected through the early afternoon.  Another disturbance will approach the coastal waters from the Delaware River Valley late this afternoon and this evening with scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms.  The showers and thunderstorms will linger through the overnight hours followed by clearing conditions towards Friday morning.  Yet another disturbance will move through the region on Friday evening with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms.  The disturbance will exit by late Friday night with clearing conditions towards Saturday morning.  Partly cloudy skies can be expected on Saturday with an isolated shower possible in the afternoon and evening.

Winds will veer from the southeast to southwest around 5 to 15 mph through this afternoon.  Winds will be from the southwest around 5 to 15 mph tonight through Friday.  Winds will veer to the west around 5 to 15 mph on Friday night and remain from the west through Saturday.

Temperatures will rise into the lower to upper 70’s for afternoon highs.  On Friday, temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 60’s for morning lows and rebound into the mid to upper 70’s for afternoon highs.  On Saturday, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 60’s for morning lows and rebound into the mid 70’s to lower 80’s for afternoon highs.

Water temperatures will range from the upper 60’s to mid 70’s through the forecast period.

Wave heights will range from 1 to 3 feet through the forecast period with higher swells in and around thunderstorms.

The latest updates on the bottom!

9:26:06 AM: Strong thunderstorms have already developed along the southern New Jersey and are racing northeast into the coastal waters.

9:26:30 AM: We can already see that with just a few breaks of sun how the atmosphere rapidly destabilizes and thunderstorms develop.

9:26:50 AM: The main threat for severe weather though will be focused this afternoon into the early evening hours.

9:29:03 AM: Low level clouds continue to break up, which means that the sun will have a greater ability to warm and destabilize the atmosphere.

9:29:28 AM: Once again, the threat from thunderstorms will be strong wind gusts, large hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

9:29:40 AM: An isolated tornado is possible, but not likely.

9:30:14 AM: The best potential for severe weather will be from eastern Pennsylvania through western and central New Jersey.

9:30:30 AM: Those locations cover all of the Delaware River Valley.
11:23:35 AM: A cluster of strong thunderstorms is currently moving towards central and eastern Long Island.

11:24:03 AM: These thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy downpours, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and reduced visibility.

4:07:58 PM: Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are develoing over parts of the forecast area.

4:10:37 PM: The thunderstorms have developed over NE PA, the Hudson Valley, and CT. A few thunderstorms are approaching severe levels.

4:12:31 PM: Cloud cover over SE PA and NJ continues to inhibit thunderstorms, however any t-storm that does develop will reach strong to severe levels.

6:54:10 PM: Strong thunderstorms are currently developing over central NJ, the Hudson Vallet, and CT this evening.

6:54:44 PM: These thunderstorms are moving to the ENE very slowly.

6:55:42 PM: The majority of these thunderstorms are capable of large hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

6:57:29 PM: An area of low pressure has developed over the Tennessee Valley and will move through NJ tonight.

6:58:16 PM: An area of heavy rainfall has developed over VA and cemtral MD this evening.

6:59:07 PM: This rainfall will move into SE PA late this evening and the rest of the forecast area overnight.