The majority of the severe weather will be focused along and ahead of a strong cold front running from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains.  The wind shear with this upper level pattern is not very impressive, however I have slight disagreements with the SPC on the most likely place for tornado development.  While the SPC has a very slight risk of tornadoes over the Ohio Valley due to strong vertical shear in this location, I think the threat also exist over Oklahoma.  

In Oklahoma, a surface low has developed over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and will move to the north and east of much of central Oklahoma.  In this case, enough low level vertical shear can develop to support the development of super cell thunderstorms with impressive meso low development.  So I think this is an area to keep an eye on.  

Otherwise, the majority of the severe thunderstorms will feature large hail, strong wind gusts, and heavy downpours.  A few weak disturbances will get as far east as eastern Pennsylvania, western New Jersey, and east-central New York, which will produce a few isolated severe thunderstorms.

Tags: Great Lakes, hail, heavy rain, Mid West, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsyvlania, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, southern Plains, strong wind gusts, tornado