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Archive for July 3rd, 2008

FORECAST DISCUSSION

TODAY’S PODCAST:

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QUICK CAST:

          TODAY          TONIGHT          FRIDAY          FRIDAY PM          SATURDAY

                                                     

            80-92            59-69               80-90               54-68               76-90

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

Today:  Increasing clouds with winds from the southwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the lower 80’s to lower 90’s with increasing humidity.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms.  Winds will veer from the southwest to northwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 50’s to upper 60’s for lows.

Friday:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Winds will back to the southwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the lower 80’s to lower 90’s for highs.

Friday night:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Winds will be from the southwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the mid 50’s to upper 60’s for lows.

Saturday:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Winds will be from the southwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the mid 70’s to lower 90’s for highs with cool conditions over the central Hudson Valley and high humidity over southern New Jersey.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

Sunday:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will range from the lower 60’s to lower 70’s for lows and lower 80’s to lower 90’s for highs.

Monday:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s for lows and mid 80’s to lower 90’s for highs.

Tuesday:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s for lows and upper 80’s to mid 90’s for highs.

Wednesday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will range from the upper 60’s to mid 70’s for lows and mid 80’s to mid 90’s for highs.

 

Bertha Born

Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the eastern Atlantic this afternoon.  As discussed this morning, then tropical depression two and now Bertha has a very well developed out flow with little in the way of shear seen inhibiting the development of this tropical storm.  As Bertha moves to the west, expect Bertha to strength close to hurricane strength by the end of this weekend.  Bertha is not expected to impact any land mass in the next few days, but will have to be monitored for impacts on the United States for next week.  The question for the track remains on just how far north Bertha will move before falling under the influence of the high pressure system off the East coast.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Thunderstorms On The Way

Strong thunderstorms over eastern Pennsylvania will continue to move through eastern Pennsylvania and eventually much of northern and central New Jersey, southeastern New York, and Connecticut.  Currently, no severe thunderstorms have developed.  However a strong thunderstorm just south of Allentown will move towards northern Bucks county of Pennsylvania, and Warren and Hunterdon Counties of New Jersey.  This thunderstorm is capable of occasional lightning, heavy downpours, and wind gusts to 55 mph.

Severe Weather Today

Today, there are two main focuses of severe weather, which both can be attributed to a strong cold front moving south over the Great Lakes and the Plains.  

Over the Northeast, the combination of a strong cold front at surface and impressive wind shear aloft along with an unstable atmosphere will lead to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts over 65 mph, large hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

Meanwhile, like in the Northeast, wind shear will be at a maximum over central and northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.  The strong cold front will stall over central Oklahoma by this afternoon and produce showers and thunderstorms with the strongest thunderstorms capable of large hail, wind gusts over 65 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.