NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Hurricane Bertha has started to make the turn to the north in the last several hours and southwesterly shear is beginning to impact the hurricane as well.  This morning, Bertha remains a dangerous category 3 hurricane, but I’m expecting some weakening today as southwesterly shear disrupts the mid level circulation of Bertha.  The turn to the north due to a weakness in the western Atlantic ridge also answers a very important question on the track of where Bertha will eventually go.  

I now believe Bertha will miss the United States and will have little if any impact on most land masses.  The island of Bermuda may still be at threat.  Why the change?  The turn to the north this morning and the gaining of latitude puts Bertha in a position to be under greater influence on the trough that exits the East Coast on Thursday.  As a result, hurricane Bertha will likely become entrained in the trough in the coming days and will be turned to the northeast in time.  Almost all the model guidance now has come into agreement of turning Bertha to the north and then northeast over the next 4 days.  

In the meantime, Hurricane Bertha remains a strong and dangerous hurricane with winds of 115 mph.  Over the next several days Hurricane Bertha will move over colder waters and encounter stronger shear, which will cause the hurricane to weaken to category 1 status.

Tags: Bermuda, Bertha, Hurricane Bertha, Mid Atlantic, Southeast, Tropical Atlantic