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Archive for August 1st, 2008

General Forecast Discussion

AUGUST CLIMATE AVERAGES WILL BE UPDATED BY THIS EVENING!

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

Today:  Clear to partly cloudy skies with winds from the west to southwest around 5 to 10 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the mid 80’s to mid 90’s for highs with a heat index in the mid to upper 90’s.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds with winds from the southwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the lower 60’s to mid 70’s for lows.

 

Saturday:  Scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms.  Winds will be from the southwest around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 70’s to mid 80’s for highs.

 

Saturday Night:  Showers in the evening followed by clearing conditions.  Winds will be from the west around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the lower to upper 60’s for lows.

 

Sunday:  Clear to partly cloudy with winds from the west around 5 to 10 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 70’s to mid 80’s for highs.

 

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

Monday:  Hazy, hot, and humid.  Temperatures will range from the lower to upper 60’s for lows and lower 80’s over the Hudson Valley to mid 90’s over the Philadelphia metro.  There will be a tight gradient over the New York City metro from the mid 80’s to lower 90’s, north to south.

Tuesday:  Hazy, hot, and humid.  Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening hours.  Temperatures will range from the lower 60’s to lower 70’s for lows and lower 80’s over the Hudson Valley to mid 90’s over the Philadelphia metro.  There will be a tight gradient over the New York City metro from the mid 80’s to lower 90’s, north to south.

Wednesday:  Hazy, hot, and humid.  Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening hours.  Temperatures will range from the lower 60’s to lower 70’s for lows and lower 80’s over the Hudson Valley to mid 90’s over the Philadelphia metro.  There will be a tight gradient over the New York City metro from the mid 80’s to lower 90’s, north to south.

Thursday:  Showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will range from the mid 60’s to mid 70’s for lows and lower 80’s to lower 90’s for highs.

Severe Weather For Today

The focus on severe weather today will be over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and produce wide spread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms.  The upper level dynamics will improve and wind shear will increase as a short wave over the northern Plains enhances a large trough over the Great Lakes.  This trough will push east and begin to develop an upper low over New England in the next 24 hours.  Before that though, the combination of the warm, humid air mass over the Ohio Valley and the deepening trough over the Ohio Valley will support thunderstorms capable of large hail, wind gusts over 65 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.