NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

The upper low has complete formed and is slowly moving over northern New York and moving towards northern New England.  Showers and thunderstorms are rotating around the upper low due to strong mid-level disturbances from the upper low.  

The thunderstorms remain below severe levels, however the strong thunderstorms currently moving through New York City and New Jersey will be capable of occasional lightning, wind gusts to 50 mph, and heavy downpours.

A severe thunderstorm is rapidly moving towards Orange County, New York.  This severe thunderstorm has been capable of producing penny size hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, and heavy downpours.

I just have to say this. 

I miss the old weather channel.  I really do.  When I was a kid, if there were severe thunderstorms and tornadoes any where in the country we would have in depth analysis, radars, and constant updates on the situation.  

Instead, I turn on the Weather Channel HD and I get some echo nut nonsense on, get this, echo friendly vacations and going to a hotel.  Carbon foot print?  Excuse me!  Tornado in Baltimore metro and you are showing this stuff?  This couldn’t wait?  They don’t have this on tape delay or something?

Perhaps the Weather Channel should change it’s name to the Scary Global Warming Channel.

The thunderstorms moving from central New York and northern Pennsylvania are beginning to intensify due to a developing upper disturbance adjacent to the new upper low forming over northern New York.  The thunderstorms will continue to move southeast towards southeastern New York and northern Pennsylvania.  

Another line of thunderstorms is beginning to develop just south and east of Scranton and move southeast towards Allentown, Pennsylvania and then to the Trenton, New Jersey area.  

The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, hail to penny size, wind gusts over 60 mph, and heavy downpours.  Use caution this evening in these thunderstorms

A severe thunderstorm has rapidly developed over northwestern Burlington County.  The severe thunderstorm is capable of penny size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours.  

The severe thunderstorm will progress to the east towards the rest of northern Burlington County and through northern Ocean County over the next 1 to 2 hours.

A line of weak to strong thunderstorms is developing over central New York and north-central Pennsylvania.  Of the next few hours, these thunderstorms will move into an area of increasing wind shear, moisture convergence, and a more unstable atmosphere over much of the forecast area.  While the majority of these thunderstorms will remain below severe levels, I can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm, as discussed below.

What will be interesting is that there is confluence at the base of the trough over the forecast area and will be watching to see the impact on the thunderstorms from this influence as the afternoon continues

A stationary front briefly lies from the southern Long Island coast through central New Jersey and Trenton, New Jersey and off to the southeast over Pennsylvania, just north of Philadelphia.  The area of low pressure that developed over White Plains, New York and supported the strong to severe thunderstorms over the region has now raced off towards southern New England.  However, a new area of low pressure has started to developed over the Washington D.C. metro as seen to the left.  

Most of the northern half of the forecast area is to the north of this boundary.  The stationary front will eventually move south as a cold front as we continue on through the evening.  

So why do I think we’ll not see severe weather for central New Jersey and the rest of the Philadelphia metro?  The water vapor please!

 As you can see here, there are severe strong disturbances at 500 MB rotating through the Mid Atlantic.  The forecast area is basically right over the trough axis of the developing upper low as the whole scale trough tilts negative.  What does this mean for us?  

Well, to the east of the forecast area expect the thunderstorms and heavy rain to slow down in the progression to the east.  Parts of northeastern Connecticut on through the rest of southern New England is going to see some very heavy rain this afternoon.  Another aspect of the position of the trough is that disturbances diving south are going to miss impacting the forecast area.  The three disturbances diving out the Great Lakes are moving towards the Baltimore and Washington D.C metro areas, exactly where that new area of low pressure is developing.  As a result, the strongest lifting will be focused to the south and east of the forecast area through the afternoon and evening hours.  Now this does not mean that the forecast area will not see thunderstorms.  Until this cold front clears the coast this evening, the threat for thunderstorms remain, and with increasing shear over southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey; an isolated severe thunderstorm isn’t impossible.  However, the main threat will remain to the south of Philadelphia in my opinion.  

More updates as the afternoon continues

The brunt of the severe thunderstorms are now being focused from northern Monmouth County through Kinds and Queens, New York, and off towards Connecticut.  It is in these areas that the strongest vertical wind shear and upper level divergence is developing.  This is due to the strongest PVA moving through these areas, which can be clearly seen on the latest water vapor satellite images.  Once these thunderstorms exit the forecast area in the next few hours, the threat for severe thunderstorms will dramatically decrease.  

Strong thunderstorms can still be expected through the afternoon from central Monmouth County on southward through the Philadelphia metro and southern New Jersey.  Winds shear and the rising motion of the atmosphere due to PVA is significantly weaker in these locations and the lack of strong moisture convergence won’t help either.  While showers and thunderstorms will be expected through the afternoon, the storm will likely remain below severe levels. 

Given the latest data, I think the severe thunderstorm watch that has been issued through 6 PM will likely be canceled early for most of the forecast area.

The skies have darkened quickly over the past 5 minutes in Freehold.  I have just observed about 3 cloud to ground lightning strikes in the past few minutes as well.  This thunderstorm on the radar looks to mean business.  There are significant signs of not only bowing of the thunderstorms, but also a distinct meso-low forming over northeastern Monmouth County.  This thunderstorm at this time is NOT tornadic, but will produce very strong wind gusts through out Monmouth County.  

Heavy rain has just started at 12:59 PM.

A severe thunderstorm with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, penny size hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning is moving towards Kings and Queens Counties of New York.  This thunderstorm will rapidly reduce visibility over the counties.  Expect significant delays of JFK air port due to these thunderstorms.