NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

The monthly climate data for August is updated and online!  

Well I’m off the rest of the afternoon for some fun activities!  Have a great day out there!

The focus of the severe weather this afternoon will be over the northern Plains.  A building heat ridge over the southern and central Plains will send hot and moist air into the lower levels of the atmosphere in this region.  Meanwhile, a trough will begin to dig over the northern Rockies, which will send a series of disturbances through the northern Plains.  The combination of warm, moist, unstable air at the surface, cool, dry air aloft, increasing wind shear, and moderate to strong mid level disturbances will set up an environment perfect for severe weather.  The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of large hail, wind gusts over 65 mph, isolated tornadoes, and very heavy downpours.  

The rest of the nation will be generally quiet with only the usual afternoon thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and some monsoonal showers and thunderstorms over the Southwest and central Rockies.

A new poll question is up on the side bar.  What do you think fall will be like?  Will we have a fall with above normal temperatures?  Colder than normal?  What do you think?

The following are official local storm reports from the National Weather Service.  There were some nasty strong to severe thunderstorms over the forecast area yesterday afternoon.  In fact, when I went to the gym yesterday I noticed that lightning took out some of the traffic lights on route 9!  There were also some reports of trees down, minor flooding, and just some general inconvenience for anyone happening to be on vacation.

730 AM     TSTM WND GST     9 W CAPE MAY COURT HOUS 38.94N 75.07W
08/02/2008  M76.00 MPH       ANZ431             NJ   BUOY

            66 KNOT WIND GUST AT BRANDYWINE SHOALS LIGHT NOS STATION.

0736 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W CAPE MAY COURT HOUS 38.94N 74.92W
08/02/2008  M54.00 MPH       CAPE MAY           NJ   BUOY

            47 KNOT WIND GUST AT CAPE MAY NOS STATION.

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VILLAS                  39.02N 74.94W
08/02/2008                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN IN VILLAS.

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE    39.08N 74.82W
08/02/2008                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN NEAR COURT HOUSE RD AND DENNISVILLE
            RD IN CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE. TREES WIRE DOWN ON INDIAN
            TRAIL RD AS WELL.

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DENNISVILLE             39.19N 74.83W
08/02/2008                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN DENNIS TWP ON RT 47.

1030 AM     HAIL             4 S LEHIGHTON           40.77N 75.72W
08/02/2008  E0.50 INCH       CARBON             PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN EAST PENN TWP.

1134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MILFORD                 40.57N 75.09W
08/02/2008                   HUNTERDON          NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN HOLLAND TWP AND MILFORD. PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO
            REPORTED.

1219 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOPEWELL                40.39N 74.76W
08/02/2008                   MERCER             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN HOPEWELL TWP.

1223 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N PRINCETON           40.42N 74.66W
08/02/2008                   SOMERSET           NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN MONTGOMERY TWP.

1228 PM     HAIL             KENDALL PARK            40.41N 74.56W
08/02/2008  E0.25 INCH       MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL IN KENDALL PARK.

1230 PM     HAIL             MORGANVILLE             40.38N 74.24W
08/02/2008  E0.25 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL IN MORGANVILLE.

1236 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SANDY HOOK              40.44N 73.99W
08/02/2008  M47.00 MPH       MONMOUTH           NJ   BUOY

            41 KT GUST AT SANDY HOOK GAUGE.

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARLBORO                40.32N 74.25W
08/02/2008                   MONMOUTH           NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN MARLBORO, HOLMDEL, AND MIDDLETOWN.

0445 PM     HAIL             WILLINGBORO             40.03N 74.89W
08/02/2008  E0.25 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WILLINGBORO.

0445 PM     HAIL             MOUNT HOLLY             39.99N 74.79W
08/02/2008  M0.75 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT NWSWFO MOUNT HOLLY.

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ROCK HALL           39.11N 76.24W
08/02/2008                   KENT               MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES/WIRES/POLES DOWN OVER A LARGE AREA. MANY
            ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. QUARTER-SIZE HAIL WAS
            ALSO REPORTED. BASED ON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SURVEY, THIS
            WAS DETERMINED TO BE A STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT.

0506 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S ROCK HALL           39.11N 76.24W
08/02/2008  M69.00 MPH       KENT               MD   BUOY

            57 KNOT WIND GUST REPORTED AT TOLCHESTER BEACH TIDAL
            GAUGE...60 KNOT MAX WIND GUST.

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ROCK HALL           39.11N 76.24W
08/02/2008                   KENT               MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN TOLCHESTER BEACH.

0535 PM     HAIL             ALBRIGHTSVILLE          41.01N 75.60W
08/02/2008  E0.25 INCH       CARBON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL IN ALBRIGHTSVILLE.

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKVILLE              39.78N 74.31W
08/02/2008                   OCEAN              NJ   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRAFFIC LIGHT AND WIRES DOWN IN OCEAN TWP.

0625 PM     HAIL             6 S BELVIDERE           40.74N 75.07W
08/02/2008  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN LOWER BETHEL TWP.

0720 PM     HAIL             BERNVILLE               40.43N 76.11W
08/02/2008  E0.25 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            48 MPH WIND GUST

1155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                41.12N 73.35W
08/02/2008                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0700 PM     LIGHTNING        MILLBROOK               41.78N 73.69W
08/02/2008                   DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

Well all the usual forecast products are done including the technical forecast discussion.  I hope you enjoy them!

Now, I want to talk about what this trough in the East means from the perspective of tropical weather and the fall pattern.  

I don’t like to put a ton of weight on what happens in August will translate through November.  Some data would suggest that the fact we have seen and continued to see a trough in the Northeast part of the country that we’ll see a cold fall and early winter.  Those out there who are stating this could certainly be on to something.  However, my focus is a bit more short and medium range than 4 months from now.  A lot can happen in four months, but I respect those that try.

One aspect to consider for the rest of August with this trough is that much of the forecast area is safe from the influence of tropical storms and hurricanes.  With the trough and upper low expected to sit right over the eastern Great Lakes or Northeast through at least mid August, the upper level pattern would carry a good bit of the tropical systems away from the East coast.  The overall trough in East and ridge in West pattern also will bring an increase chance of shear into the Gulf of Mexico and along the East coast as well, which is great news for gas and energy prices.  The last thing we need is a series of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.  So for at least through the 20th of August, I think much of the Northeastern and Mid Atlantic United States is completely safe from a direct impact from a tropical system.  Further, the potential for a strong tropical cyclone or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is also below normal as I don’t foresee conditions becoming particular favorable.  This may change for late August and early September depending on the position of the trough axis.  

As for the direct impact of this trough, I think fall like low temperatures will be making an early entrance into the forecast area from the Hudson Valley on south after August 8th.  The trough on all model guidance including the GFS ensembles and ECWMF all suggest a deep, cold upper low over much of the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic from August 8th through August 15th.  If guidance is close to correct, we may see the return of upper 40’s to mid 50’s for lows through out much of the northern half of the forecast area, especially in Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania.  I’m not so much convince of this for the Philadelphia metro and immediate New York City and Long Island.  

So can this translate to Fall and what does this mean for the Winter?  Well, like I said I don’t want to jump the gun here.  I have to still look at a mountain of data and make some sense of the ENSO states and not to mention the trends of the stratosphere before making any defined forecast.  However, the ridge in the West, trough in East pattern would fit with a neutral ENSO pattern, and should that happen then at the very least we should expect the temperature trends to run near to below normal and precipitation at least near normal going forward.  Like I said, lots of work to be done before I nail that down.

A strong tropical disturbance is forming along an old stationary cold front in the Gulf of Mexico.  A weak area of low pressure has formed with showers and thunderstorms developing around the center of circulation.  However, this center of circulation is rather weak and the latest observations along the Gulf Coast are not exactly screaming of rapid development.  The upper level winds will carry this tropical disturbance to the southwest towards southeastern Texas and Mexico in the next 24 to 48 hours.  Some development is possible and this feature could become a new tropical depression later in the day.  The National Hurricane Center is planning to send a plane into this area of disturbed weather, so we’ll have more information this evening I think.

Good Morning!

The local forecast discussion is updated and ready to go!  You’ll notice that I’ve lowered the temperatures a bit for the Philadelphia area this morning and kept the forecast rather stormy through the week.  I’ll explain what’s going on in the technical discussion.

However, some of you may know, it’s my birthday this morning and I’m being treated to pancakes, which are cooking downstairs right now!  So I’ll be a few minutes before I’m finished with all the updates.  

Thanks!

Steven DiMartino