NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

How strong have the thunderstorms been over southwestern Connecticut?  How about large hail, wind damage, and even a funnel cloud!  

At 6:20 PM this evening, a severe thunderstorm briefly was observed over northeastern Bridgeport by an official spotter.  The thunderstorm has since moved into the Long Island Sound.  Other severe thunderstorms are currently moving through Fairfield and New Haven Counties of Connecticut.

Severe thunderstorms have developed over southwestern Connecticut and northern Long Island this evening.  The severe thunderstorms have been capable of penny size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall.  These thunderstorms have produced rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

Currently there is a particularly nasty thunderstorms over the eastern Long Island Sound that will move towards northeastern Suffolk County including the towns of Peconic, Greenport, North Haven, and Shelter Island Heights.  

There are additional showers and thunderstorms approaching the forecast area, but are not severe.

Strong thunderstorms are developing throughout the forecast area as a strong disturbance approaches. The showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage through the afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning, large hail, wind gusts to 55 mph, and heavy downpours.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is currently developing over northwestern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York this morning.  This area of rainfall is associated with a strong upper disturbance at 500 MB that will move towards the forecast area.  Over the next 12 hours, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will grow over central New York.  Eventually, this disturbance will impact much of the central and southern Hudson Valley, the New York City metro, Connecticut, much of northern New Jersey, and northeastern Pennsylvania.  

The strong mid level forcing combined with upper level divergence will lead to some areas of heavy rainfall.  Much like on Wednesday morning, mid level frontogenesis will potentially lead to an additional heavy rain event for the forecast area.  

Expect clouds to increase in the afternoon with rain beginning to move into eastern Pennsylvania by around 7 PM and continue on eastward the rest of the evening.

The most likely area for severe weather today will be over the Southeast, specifically over eastern North Carolina, South Carolina, northern Georgia, and northern Alabama.  A cold front will slowly sink through this region while a series of strong disturbances in the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere enhance the thunderstorms.  The disturbances will produce increasingly strong vertical speed and directional shear over the region.  Colder temperatures aloft will also lead to the development of large hail in the strongest thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, frequent lightning, large hail, and heavy downpours.  

Another disturbance over the eastern Great Lakes will move east towards the northern Mid Atlantic and western New England through tonight.  Although severe thunderstorms are not expected with this disturbance, heavy rain will be possible and may lead to localized urban flash flooding.

The local forecast discussion is updated!  

You know, I had a hard time concentrating this morning after being shocked by what I read about the Jets.  I’m not a Jets fan, but Brett Farve a NY Jet?  Sign of the end of the world or just a freak occurrence?  You be the judge.

Anyway, there’s a lot of interesting developments going on with the pattern that I’ll be going over in the technical forecast discussion.

1. The trough dominates the East.

2. Below to near normal temperatures expected through at least mid month

3. Development of upper low can mean heavy rain or dry conditions.

It’s been a crazy morning.  Keep it coming!