NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

The last round of strong to severe thunderstorms is about to move through the Philadelphia metro in the next hour.  This area of showers and thunderstorms will move through the entire forecast area this evening followed by a long break in precipitation for the rest of the night.

The strongest severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.  Additional, the flooding issues over southern New Jersey will become even more extreme as the heavy rainfall moves over the region.  Expect additional areas of flash flooding this evening through out southern New Jersey.  The strongest part of this line of thunderstorms will be focused from central New Jersey on southward.  The atmosphere have become more stable over the New York City metro, which will limit the potential for severe weather.

The flooding of streets and property is being reported throughout southern New Jersey as over 2 inches of rain has fallen throughout southern New Jersey with doppler estimates of up to 6 inches over parts of Salem and Gloucester Counties.  As a result, a flood warning has been issued until 7:00 PM over the region. 

 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move towards the region which will produce a continuation of flood conditions through the evening hours.  Use caution when driving through roadways under water as the water may be deeper than it appears.

The flood warning impacts the following counties:

Atlantic County

Burlington County

Camden County

Ocean County

Salem County

Another line of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving towards the forecast area.  The line of thunderstorms is currently over eastern Pennsylvania and will slowly move through the entire region this afternoon and late into the evening hours.  The thunderstorms are associated with a strong cold front at the surface and strong PVA aloft from the upper level low to the northwest of the forecast area.  The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, wind gusts exceeding 55 mph, large hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Ahead of this line of thunderstorms, an area of heavy rain will continue to northeast over much of New Jersey, the New York City metro, and eventually all of Connecticut.  Rainfall amounts of 0.50″ to 2.00″ will be possible from this area of rainfall and may cause localized flash flooding.

In an area that greatly needed the rainfall for over a year, much of southern New Jersey has received over an inch of rain with southwesterly New Jersey ranging from 3 to 6 inches of rain according to the latest doppler estimates.

The rainfall is starting to end for now as the disturbance associated with the thunderstorm complex is moving north and east.  The thunderstorm complex will continue on towards central New Jersey and the New York City metro through the afternoon hours.  Additional thunderstorms are developing over eastern Pennsylvania and will move towards the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening.

The severe threats of tornadoes, wind damage, and hail are decreasing as thunderstorms are using up the energy stored from the impressive lapse rates.  However, heavy rain is becoming a very significant issue especially over southern New Jersey where rainfall amounts have already exceeding 2 inches, and with thunderstorms continuing to back build, wide spread flash flooding can be expected.  

The heavy rainfall will slowly move north and east towards the New York City metro, however this may take several hours.  Use caution in driving this afternoon and do not attempt to drive through areas of submerged roadways as the water may be deeper than it looks.

The severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado and has shown rotation is moving towards Salem, Gloucester,and Camden Counties.  This thunderstorm and tornado is moving directly towards central Burlington County and eventually towards western Monmouth County.

This is a danger severe thunderstorm with the capability to produce hail up to 2″ in diameter, heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph.

Another severe thunderstorm has shown the capability of producing a tornado over Salem County.  A tornado has not yet been observed, however a rotation has been observed on doppler radar.  The potential tornado will be over Pennsville at 1:05 PM and Woodstown by 1:30 PM.

The severe thunderstorm over northeastern Salem County that produced a signature suggesting a possible tornado is weakening and the threat of a tornado from this thunderstorm is decreasing.  However, this thunderstorm is still dangerous with large hail, frequent lightning, and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph.

Well, let me just lay down the basics here.  We are entering and in some cases are in a very active severe weather period throughout the forecast area.  

I’m going to keep an eye on the most significant thunderstorms, like that tornado warning over southwestern New Jersey.  The entire forecast area can expect very heavy rainfall, wind gusts exceeding 50 mph, small to large hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning over the majority of the forecast area.  Those going to baseball games today would be smart to have rain gear with you as I expect delays if not postponements this afternoon.  In short, if you have to go out, be very careful with these thunderstorms.