NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

The most organized area of severe weather will be found over the north-central Plains.  A trough will dig into the region, which will send a series of strong disturbances south through much of the area.  As a result, wind shear will increase as cold temperatures aloft combine to destabilize the atmosphere.  The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of large hail, heavy downpours, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, and an isolated tornado.  

A dry line along with a surface cold front will destabilize the atmosphere over the Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas.  Wind shear will increase over this region as dry air aloft moves towards central Oklahoma.  The majority of the thunderstorms will be weak, however an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible with the strongest capable of strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado.

Finally, the upper low rotating through the Northeast will continue to produce an unstable environment with warm, moist air at the surface and cold, dry air aloft.  Although precipitation is expected to be widely scattered, the nature of the upper level system would suggest the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  The strongest thunderstorms will exhibit large hail, heavy downpours, and damaging wind gusts over 50 mph.

The combination of a surface cold front and a strong upper low over the eastern Great Lakes produced a favorable environment for wide spread severe weather over much of the forecast area.  Only the New York City metro seemed to have escaped the severe weather, while the Philadelphia metro was repeatably impacted.  The area of greatest impact was over southern New Jersey, which had heavy flooding rainfall, strong wind gusts, large hail ranging from 0.50″ to 2.00″, and even two tornadoes!  Here are the official local storm reports from the National Weather Service and there is a lot of them!

0958 AM     HAIL             RIO GRANDE              39.02N 74.88W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1000 AM     HAIL             GREEN CREEK             39.05N 74.90W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1040 AM     HAIL             WILMINGTON MANOR        39.69N 75.58W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1040 AM     HAIL             WILMINGTON MANOR        39.69N 75.58W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1040 AM     HAIL             WILMINGTON MANOR        39.69N 75.58W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1103 AM     HAIL             2 SE COATESVILLE        39.96N 75.79W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1110 AM     HAIL             2 SE EXTON              40.01N 75.60W

08/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1110 AM     HAIL             CLAYTON                 39.66N 75.08W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1114 AM     HAIL             GLASSBORO               39.70N 75.11W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1115 AM     HAIL             EXTON                   40.03N 75.63W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       CHESTER            PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

 

1115 AM     HAIL             WEST CHESTER            39.96N 75.61W

08/10/2008  E2.00 INCH       CHESTER            PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

 

1117 AM     HAIL             1 NE GLASSBORO          39.71N 75.10W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1126 AM     HAIL             2 E PITMAN              39.73N 75.09W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1134 AM     HAIL             PITMAN                  39.73N 75.13W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1142 AM     HAIL             4 S BERLIN              39.74N 74.94W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1147 AM     HAIL             5 W PHOENIXVILLE        40.14N 75.61W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1205 PM     HAIL             3 N POTTSTOWN           40.29N 75.64W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1208 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MILLSBORO               38.59N 75.29W

08/10/2008                   SUSSEX             DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1220 PM     HAIL             REHOBOTH BEACH          38.72N 75.08W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1220 PM     HAIL             N HAMMONTON             39.65N 74.77W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1220 PM     HAIL             CAMDEN                  39.94N 75.11W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1225 PM     HAIL             3 S READING             40.30N 75.93W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1227 PM     HAIL             REHOBOTH BEACH          38.72N 75.08W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1230 PM     HAIL             HAMMONTON               39.65N 74.77W

08/10/2008  E1.50 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1234 PM     HAIL             MARCUS HOOK             39.81N 75.42W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1235 PM     HAIL             2 NW POTTSTOWN          40.27N 75.67W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1235 PM     HAIL             EAST GREENVILLE         40.41N 75.51W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1235 PM     HAIL             PENNS GROVE             39.73N 75.47W

08/10/2008  E1.25 INCH       SALEM              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1235 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     PENNS GROVE             39.73N 75.47W

08/10/2008                   SALEM              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

1255 PM     LIGHTNING        WEST CHESTER            39.96N 75.61W

08/10/2008                   CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            LARGE TREE DOWN

 

0100 PM     HAIL             NORTH CAPE MAY          38.98N 74.95W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0103 PM     HAIL             ERMA                    39.00N 74.89W

08/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0103 PM     HAIL             ERMA                    39.00N 74.89W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0103 PM     HAIL             BEERSVILLE              40.75N 75.47W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0105 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.60N 75.48W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0105 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.60N 75.48W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0105 PM     HAIL             HAMMONTON               39.65N 74.77W

08/10/2008  E1.50 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0105 PM     HAIL             RIO GRANDE              39.02N 74.88W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0110 PM     HAIL             LEHIGH UNIVERSITY       40.61N 75.38W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0110 PM     HAIL             GREEN CREEK             39.05N 74.90W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0120 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.60N 75.48W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0120 PM     HAIL             HAMMONTON               39.65N 74.77W

08/10/2008  E1.50 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0120 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.60N 75.48W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE

 

0130 PM     HAIL             WOODBINE                39.23N 74.81W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0130 PM     HAIL             3 NNE ELMER             39.63N 75.16W

08/10/2008  E1.25 INCH       SALEM              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0135 PM     HAIL             TURNERSVILLE            39.77N 75.06W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0137 PM     HAIL             TURNERSVILLE            39.77N 75.06W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0140 PM     HAIL             TURNERSVILLE            39.77N 75.06W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

 

0140 PM     HAIL             FLEETWOOD               40.46N 75.82W

08/10/2008  E1.50 INCH       BERKS              PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

 

            1.25 TO 1.50 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

 

0140 PM     HAIL             4 W TURNERSVILLE        39.77N 75.14W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0140 PM     HAIL             N MULLICA HILL          39.74N 75.22W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0140 PM     HAIL             4 W TURNERSVILLE        39.77N 75.14W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0145 PM     HAIL             4 W TURNERSVILLE        39.77N 75.14W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0150 PM     HAIL             BELTZVILLE STATE PARK   40.87N 75.61W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       CARBON             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

 

0156 PM     HAIL             3 W ELVERSON            40.16N 75.89W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0156 PM     HAIL             6 ENE ELMER             39.62N 75.08W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0156 PM     HAIL             6 ENE ELMER             39.62N 75.08W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0156 PM     HAIL             SOMERDALE               39.85N 75.02W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0156 PM     HAIL             ALBRIGHTSVILLE          41.01N 75.60W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       CARBON             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

 

0156 PM     HAIL             MANAHAWKIN              39.70N 74.25W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0157 PM     HAIL             2 NW NEWFIELD           39.57N 75.05W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0158 PM     HAIL             N TURNERSVILLE          39.77N 75.06W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S PENNS GROVE         39.65N 75.47W

08/10/2008                   SALEM              NJ   AMATEUR RADIO

 

            HOUSES AND STREETS UNDER WATER

 

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PITMAN                  39.73N 75.13W

08/10/2008                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            FLOODED TRAIN STATION AND CARS WERE STUCK

 

0230 PM     HAIL             2 E POCONO PINES        41.12N 75.42W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0230 PM     HAIL             30 W STROUDSBURG        40.98N 75.77W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CARBON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N ALLENTOWN           40.67N 75.48W

08/10/2008                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            FLOODED ROADS

 

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S CHESTER SPRINGS     40.03N 75.63W

08/10/2008                   CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            8 TO 10 INCH LIMBS DOWN IN EXTON….PEA SIZED HAIL IN

            WARWICK.

 

0545 PM     HAIL             COCHRANVILLE            39.89N 75.92W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            HAIL RANGED FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE AND ACCUMULATED

            ONE TO TWO INCHES DEEP. MINOR DAMAGE WAS DONE TO

            VEGETATION WITH SOME LEAVES REMOVED. THE HAIL LASTED

            BETWEEN 10 AND 12 MINUTES.

 

0550 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  39.79N 75.98W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0635 PM     HAIL             NEWARK                  39.68N 75.76W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   AMATEUR RADIO

 

0641 PM     HAIL             NEWARK                  39.68N 75.76W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0645 PM     HAIL             BEAR                    39.62N 75.68W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            STRONG WINDS

 

0645 PM     HAIL             10 S MILLVILLE          39.25N 75.05W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0650 PM     HAIL             ELDORA                  39.22N 74.91W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0657 PM     HAIL             WOODBINE                39.23N 74.81W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

 

0714 PM     TSTM WND GST     PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIO 40.01N 75.13W

08/10/2008  M46.00 MPH       PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

 

            A 46 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE

            PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

 

0727 PM     HAIL             ATLANTIC CITY           39.36N 74.44W

08/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0730 PM     HAIL             MULLICA HILL            39.74N 75.22W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0735 PM     HAIL             MARMORA                 39.27N 74.65W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   PUBLIC

 

0745 PM     HAIL             WILLIAMSTOWN            39.69N 74.98W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN CROSS KEYS AND WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP.

 

0750 PM     HAIL             2 NE BRIDGETON          39.45N 75.20W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            HAIL OCCURRED IN UPPER DEERFIELD TOWNSHIP.

 

0757 PM     HAIL             ROSENHAYN               39.48N 75.14W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MULLICA HILL            39.74N 75.22W

08/10/2008  M3.27 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            3.27 INCHES OF RAIN STORM TOTAL.

 

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SLATINGTON              40.75N 75.61W

08/10/2008  M1.90 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            1.90 INCHES OF RAIN STORM TOTAL.

 

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT EPHRAIM           39.88N 75.09W

08/10/2008  M2.50 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THREE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE

            COURSE OF THE DAY.

 

0800 PM     FLOOD            OCEAN CITY              39.27N 74.60W

08/10/2008                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            STREET FLOODING IN THE NORTH END OF OCEAN CITY.

 

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MILLVILLE               39.39N 75.05W

08/10/2008  M1.80 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            1.80 INCHES OF RAIN STORM TOTAL.

 

0840 PM     HAIL             ESTELL MANOR            39.35N 74.77W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   CO-OP OBSERVER

 

0900 PM     HAIL             LINWOOD                 39.34N 74.57W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0900 PM     HAIL             SOMERS POINT            39.32N 74.61W

08/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0917 PM     HAIL             ATLANTIC CITY           39.36N 74.44W

08/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            HAIL OCCURRED IN WEST ATLANTIC CITY.

 

1125 AM     HAIL             AMES                    42.84N 74.60W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

            HAIL RANGING FROM PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER

 

1136 AM     HAIL             CANAJOHARIE             42.90N 74.57W

08/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0131 PM     HAIL             TILLSON                 41.83N 74.07W

08/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       ULSTER             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0200 PM     HAIL             CHESTERTOWN             43.65N 73.80W

08/10/2008  M0.88 INCH       WARREN             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0205 PM     HAIL             POTTERSVILLE            43.73N 73.82W

08/10/2008  M0.75 INCH       WARREN             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0248 PM     HAIL             WINDSOR                 42.51N 73.06W

08/10/2008  M0.75 INCH       BERKSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

 

0335 PM     HAIL             CULLEN                  42.88N 74.96W

08/10/2008  M1.75 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   PUBLIC

 

The tropical Atlantic is starting to get rather interesting.  We can now narrow down two possible disturbances that can become tropical depressions in the next 48 hours.  Both disturbances are well east of the Windward Island, about 900 miles away.  

The latest upper level observations would suggest that high pressure aloft will remain over the disturbances over the next 48 hours, which will support favorable conditions for development.  The latest model guidance suggest that the first disturbance will move towards the northern Caribbean Sea and then become sheared by the trough along the East coast.  However, the second disturbance has the potential to become a strong tropical system, and with the pattern changing by next weekend to exhibit a ridge along the East coast, the potential for this disturbance impact the East coast is increasing.

The local forecast discussion is updated.  

This upper low sure is going to be pesky over the next several days.  While there is no organized strong surface low over the next few days, a series of disturbances rotating around the upper low will ensure the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.  As we learned last week, those disturbances can lead to some nasty thunderstorms in the afternoon, so you’ve been warned.  

Thoughts to be covered in the technical forecast discussion:

1. It just goes round and round.

2.  Change in the pattern?

3. Warm and humid, but what about hot?