NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Active Tropical Atlantic May Mean Trouble For East Coast

There are three areas of interest that I’m keeping an eye on.  One area is of immediate concern for much of the East coast, the other is of general concern, and the third is of long range possibilities.  

First, a tropical disturbance roughly 175 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  This disturbance is becoming much better organized over the past few hours and will likely become a tropical depression by sometime today.  This disturbance is forecasted by practically every model guidance to strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane over the next several days and to be positioned somewhere over or to the north of the Bahamas.  A trough moving through the Northeast on Tuesday will pull the tropical system to the north for a short time before the ridge rebuilds into the Northeast, thus I would say that there is a growing threat for the East coast of the United States from this tropical disturbance.  The upper level winds and sea surface temperatures strongly support the potential for strengthening over the next 48 hours.  This disturbance will have to be monitored very carefully.

The next disturbance is located roughly 1350 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  This tropical disturbance is not as organized as the first with showers and thunderstorms remaining scattered and the low level circulation rather weak.  However, the upper level winds over the central Tropical Atlantic will remain weak with no significant wind shear expected.  Also, sea surface temperatures remain rather warm and should support further development.  However, given the recent track record of this tropical disturbance, I’m still expecting development to be slow.  

Finally, a tropical wave that has just exited the African coast bares watching over the next several days.  This tropical disturbance does exhibit a low level circulation with plenty of showers and thunderstorms.  As with the other disturbances, wind shear will be weak if not non-existant, with warm sea surface temperatures.  Although I don’t expect any development over the next 48 hours, this disturbance will have potential to develop further through the weekend.

Tags: 92L, Bahamas, Caribbean Sea, Connecticut, Cuba, Delaware, Dominican Republic, East Coast, Florida, Georgia, Hati, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tropical Atlantic, tropical disturbances, Virginia