NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

I haven’t gotten any official reports from Mercer County, but taking into account the doppler estimated rainfall amounts, Mercer County is getting absolutely pounded with heavy rainfall.  Hourly rainfall rates range from 1 to 3 inches from this thunderstorm, and the thunderstorm is not exactly moving very quickly.  

Meanwhile, in my neck of the woods, the sky is black.  Pick black.  The best way I can describe it is when the lightning hits, the sky reminds me of one of those horror movies or the 2000 era Godzilla movies.  Heavy rain has started to fall and the winds are picking up.

If thunderstorms were not bad enough over Monmouth County, another impressive thunderstorm has formed just to the south and east of Allentown, Pennsylvania and will continue to move to the southeast towards western New Jersey.

This thunderstorm has the realistate to develop into one very nasty thunderstorm over the next 30 minutes and may reach severe levels.  The DBZ from this storm is slowly increasing and the thunderstorm will tap into some unused warm, moist air.  What will be interesting is how this thunderstorm will interact with the outflow boundaries from the thunderstorms to the east.

While I’m ducking for cover with these thunderstorms in Mercer and Monmouth County, I want to point out that a slow line of strong to severe thunderstorms is producing impressive rainfall amounts over much of the New York City metro and Suffolk County, New York.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible from these thunderstorms, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone reaches over those amounts the way these thunderstorms are moving.  

Flash Flood Warnings have specifically been issued for the following counties:

New Jersey

Union

Essex

New York

Suffolk

All I can say is wow!  

I haven’t seen the type of lightning I’m seeing from this thunderstorm moving through Monmouth County since I was in Oklahoma.  This thunderstorm is very dangerous in terms of cloud to ground lightning, there have been several strikes observed before and while I’m typing this post.  

The trees meanwhile are erielly still like all the air has been sucked away.  The skies are becoming jet black, which is striking when you combine the lightning.  If I didn’t know better, I would think a tornado was coming.  

I’m going to step away from the computer for a minute just to make sure everything is safe with this thunderstorm.

While I’ve been watching the severe thunderstorms moving through the forecast area, I forgot to mention that the tropical disturbance has jumped to forming into Tropical Storm Fay!  

Tropical Storm Fay has formed on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, which is much further south than I was expecting.  With the formation of the center of circulation on the south side of the Dominican Republic, this tropical storm will have to move through much of Hispaniola and then Cuba before entering an area of wide open ocean waters.  As a result, I don’t expect Fay to strengthen much over the next 48 hours as the tropical storm interacts with the mountainous land masses of these islands.  The latest model guidance now takes Tropical Storm Fay to the Florida Keys by early Monday morning, where Fay will have the potential to strengthen under favorable conditions.  

From there, Tropical Storm Fay may have a significant impact on many locations along the East coast including Florida directly and indirectly in the form of remnant rainfall.

In the area circled to the left, strong thunderstorms are training over New York City through Newark, New Jersey and across north-central New Jersey.  These thunderstorms have the capability to produce very heavy rainfall, which in combination with the heavy rain from yesterday, will be capable of producing significant flooding for this region.

Use caution when driving through these thunderstorms.

As most in New York City already know, strong to severe thunderstorms are developing across the Philadelphia and New York City metro.  These thunderstorms are developing in direct result to a strong 500 MB trough moving through the forecast area producing strong lifting of the moisture rich and warm lower levels of the atmosphere into the cool, dry upper level layers of the atmosphere, which is quickly destabilizing the atmosphere as a whole.  To complicate matters, out flow boundaries from the thunderstorms are forming areas at the mesoscale of low level forcing, which is producing segments of strong to severe thunderstorms.  Also, the winds from the surface (southeasterly) to the upper levels (southwesterly) is producing a great amount of vertical wind shear, which is supporting the potential for isolated tornadoes, strong wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours.

Through the evening, expect the showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage through 8 PM and then begin to weaken as the atmosphere begins to stabilize with the loss of heating.  Also, the trough axis will begin to move through the forecast area, which will limit the upper level divergence and forcing the strongest lifting to the east.  However, before that happens, expect the thunderstorms to significantly impact many locations.  Flash flooding will continue to be a big concern for the forecast area, especially for the New York City metro and north-central New Jersey after yesterday’s severe weather and heavy rain.

Use caution when running into these thunderstorms.

Severe weather is really heating up this afternoon!  A severe thunderstorm CAPABLE of producing a tornado is moving through the following counties:

Westchester County

New York County

Bronx County

Eastern Bergen County in New Jersey

These thunderstorms are also capable of quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts.  A tornado has NOT been confirmed but is certainly possible.  

Use caution in the locations above and be careful.

As the fog lifts through the morning hours, the additional sun shine, through broken in many locations, will help to destabilize the atmosphere for this afternoon.  The influence of the upper level low can already be seen to the west as showers and thunderstorms have developed over north-central Pennsylvania and west-central New York. 

Expect the showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the late morning hours over eastern Pennsylvania and east-central New York.  The thunderstorms will increase in intensity in the afternoon hours with the potential for the thunderstorms to reach severe levels through the afternoon and evening.  After 1 to 3 inches of rain fell over the New York City metro, another 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible today, which will lead to significant flash flooding.  The rainfall rates in some thunderstorms will have the potential to reach 1 to 2 inches per hour if not more.  Use caution in these thunderstorms!

The strongest thunderstorms will also be capable of large hail, frequent lightning, wind gusts exceeding 55 mph, and an isolated tornado. Use caution this afternoon when encountering these thunderstorms.

Two areas of focus for severe weather today.  The first is over the Mid Atlantic and southern New England.  The second is over the southern Plains and southeastern Rocky Mountains.  

The culprit behind the severe weather in the Mid Atlantic and southern New England is a developing upper level low and trough that will move through the Northeast today.  The upper trough will destabilize the atmosphere and produce strong vertical wind shear over the region.  The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, large hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and isolated tornadoes.  The heavy rainfall will produce near certain flooding conditions after 1 to 3 inches from yesterday over the New York City metro and central New Jersey. 

Meanwhile, a low level disturbance from a descending MCS over the southern Plains will support destabilization of the atmosphere over western Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, eastern New Mexico, and southeastern Colorado.  The thunderstorms will be capable of large hail, wind gusts exceeding 55 mph, heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado.