NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Storm Fay is about to exit Haiti and move open a small area of open waters between Haiti and Cuba.  To be honest, I’m not all that impressed with the current images of Tropical Storm Fay.  I’m not saying it’s not a tropical storm, just a poorly organized one.  Fay though does have a strong out flow signature developing as high pressure to the north continues to build.

By Monday, Fay will interact with a weakness in this developing ridge, and move right through Cuba.  The latest model guidance suggest Tropical Storm Fay will strengthen in this period to a hurricane.  I think that Fay may reach category 1 hurricane strength before making a second land fall on Cuba, but will weaken back into a strong tropical storm due to the mountainous terrain of the island.  

On Monday evening, everyone from Mississippi to the western coast of Florida will have to keep a watch on Fay.  In the past, tropical systems that have moved into this part of the Gulf of Mexico tend to intensify rapidly and may have a significant impact on the eastern Gulf of Mexico coastline.  

From there, I think Fay will continue on through the Southeast producing heavy rain and eventually get picked up by a trough moving to the East coast by next weekend with heavy rain for the Mid Atlantic as well.

As an upper trough swung through the forecast area, strong to severe thunderstorms moved through much of the region.  The strongest thunderstorms produced large hail, wind damage, heavy downpours, and flash flooding.  The following are official storm reports from the National Weather Service:

0300 PM     HAIL             BANGOR                  40.87N 75.21W

08/15/2008  E0.25 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BANGOR. ALSO, 1.60 INCHES OF

            RAIN WAS MEASURED.

0305 PM     HAIL             REHOBOTH BEACH          38.72N 75.08W

08/15/2008  E0.50 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

0315 PM     FLOOD            3 WSW STORMVILLE        40.93N 75.29W

08/15/2008                   MONROE             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME STREET AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN HAMILTON

            TOWNSHIP.

0320 PM     HAIL             REHOBOTH BEACH          38.72N 75.08W

08/15/2008  M0.88 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN REHOBOTH BEACH.

0430 PM     HAIL             KINNELON                40.98N 74.39W

08/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       MORRIS             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN KINNELON.

0430 PM     FLOOD            5 N BETHANY BEACH       38.61N 75.07W

08/15/2008                   SUSSEX             DE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 1 COVERED WITH WATER ON THE SOUTH END OF THE INDIAN

            RIVER INLET BRIDGE.

0438 PM     HAIL             BUTLER                  41.00N 74.35W

08/15/2008  E0.25 INCH       MORRIS             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BUTLER.

0445 PM     FLOOD            BETHANY BEACH           38.54N 75.07W

08/15/2008                   SUSSEX             DE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN BETHANY BEACH.

0708 PM     LIGHTNING        NEWARK                  40.72N 74.17W

08/15/2008                   ESSEX              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PALATINE BRIDGE         42.91N 74.58W

08/15/2008                   MONTGOMERY         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

The Local Forecast Discussion is updated!

Well, after a very active afternoon and evening, much more quiet conditions can be expected through this entire weekend.  While I’m sure everyone will keep an eye on the tropics, I mean I am, the weather for this area can be described as comfortable, pleasant, and perfect for out door birthday parties!

Here are some thoughts I’ll cover in the technical forecast discussion.

1. High pressure for everyone, well almost.

2. Trough?  What trough?

3. Fay to cause havoc and heavy rain.