NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Storm Fay May Threaten Eastern Gulf Of Mexico

Tropical Storm Fay is about to exit Haiti and move open a small area of open waters between Haiti and Cuba.  To be honest, I’m not all that impressed with the current images of Tropical Storm Fay.  I’m not saying it’s not a tropical storm, just a poorly organized one.  Fay though does have a strong out flow signature developing as high pressure to the north continues to build.

By Monday, Fay will interact with a weakness in this developing ridge, and move right through Cuba.  The latest model guidance suggest Tropical Storm Fay will strengthen in this period to a hurricane.  I think that Fay may reach category 1 hurricane strength before making a second land fall on Cuba, but will weaken back into a strong tropical storm due to the mountainous terrain of the island.  

On Monday evening, everyone from Mississippi to the western coast of Florida will have to keep a watch on Fay.  In the past, tropical systems that have moved into this part of the Gulf of Mexico tend to intensify rapidly and may have a significant impact on the eastern Gulf of Mexico coastline.  

From there, I think Fay will continue on through the Southeast producing heavy rain and eventually get picked up by a trough moving to the East coast by next weekend with heavy rain for the Mid Atlantic as well.

Tags: Alabama, Caribbean Sea, Cuba, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Haiti, Mississippi, Tropical Storm Fay