NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Storm Fay looks a lot better organized this morning.  I want to discuss the possible influences of Fay for the United States.  The first question that must be determined with Fay is how long does this tropical storm remain over Cuba.  The longer Fay remains over Cuba, the more the low level circulation will be disrupted by the mountains over the island.  The further west that Fay makes that second landfall, the more organized this tropical storm will be once it gets to the waters south of the Florida Keys.  From there, that when the developments of Fay could get very interesting for everyone from the Florida Panhandle and the entire East coast.

The waters around the Florida Keys and Gulf Coast range from the mid to upper 80’s, which is like high octane fuel for tropical systems.  Combined the optimal water temperatures with very favorable upper level conditions.  The tropical storm will have the ability to strengthen rapidly in these conditions and will have to be monitored hourly as conditions with this storm could change that fast.  

From there, Fay will make landfall somewhere between the boarder of Alabama and Florida to the western coast of Florida, then track directly into the Southeast.  The intensity of Fay at landfall will determine how long Fay remains a hurricane, tropical, and depression over land.  From there, Fay will eventually travel north towards the Mid Atlantic producing significant heavy rainfall for many locations.

The Local Forecast Discussion is updated.

Clear skies are expected through today making for an excellent day to go out and have some fun!  Personally, I’m looking forward to another dominating win for the Mets.  Anyway, the main story over the next couple of days will be the adventures of Tropical Storm Fay.  Almost all the model guidance takes Fay up through the panhandle of Florida and north into the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and then Northeast.  As such, the end of the week should be rather wet.  Here are some of the topics I’ll cover in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Cold front or weak trough?  You be the judge.

2. Will heavy rain from Fay answer the doubt problems in southern New Jersey?

3.  When does the deep trough return to the East?