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Tropical Storm Fay’s Future Murky

My best advice for the forecast of Tropical Storm Fay is to through the models out for now.  Why?  Well, let’s look at the facts this morning.  Fact one, a trough that will be lifting to the north and east over the East coast is currently producing strong southwesterly shear over Fay.  Fact two, the position of Fay is much further to the east than originally forecasted.  Fay is currently moving through central Cuba and directly to the south of Florida on a north-northwesterly direction.  At this point, I am leaning heavily of the forecast guidance furtherest to the west, which would take Fay towards the eastern Florida Keys and directly over the Florida peninsula.  How strong can Fay get?  Well, first lets assume that Fay will weaken a bit over the next 12 hours.  The circulation is ragged and most of the convection to to the east of the low level circulation.  The combination of upper level wind shear and the disruption of the low level circulation due to the Cuban topography is having a significant impact on Fay this morning.  The center is also elongated and I wouldn’t be surprised if Fay weakens to a weak tropical storm by the 11 AM update from the National Hurricane Center.  

So what can we expect from Fay once the tropical storm exits Cuba?  I think we will see some strengthening, but the limited time over the waters of the Florida Keys will cut short the potential for strengthening.  At this point, I just don’t see Fay having the ability to reach hurricane strength let alone major hurricane strength, over the next 48 hours.  

After Tuesday evening, I honestly am not sure what to do with Fay.  The GFS just has Fay wonder around the Southeast coastal waters and then back into the Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF family sends Fay eventually into the Mid West as the tropical system is drawn into a slowly advancing trough.  Considering that global model guidance has been very shaky with forecasting the position of the ridge along the East coast for the end of the week, I’m taking a wait and see approach with this situation.

Tags: East Coast, Florida, Florida Keys, Tropical Storm Fay