NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

This is great weather right!  Well, how long is this high pressure dominated pattern going to last?  How about all of August!

Well, August is only ten days left, but except for a cold front and possibly the remnants of Fay on Monday, high pressure will be in control of the regions weather from the surface to 500 MB.  After the series of cold fronts, severe weather, and even a near miss of a Nor-Easter, this may seem unusual to some.  However, the reality is that THIS pattern is what we should see in August for the most part.  

The good news is that the ridge that will remain and rebuild after Friday, will build right over the forecast area.  The orientation of the ridge will produce a west to northwesterly wind pattern at the mid levels, which will keep the hot and humid conditions over the Southeast, which means very comfortable conditions will continue through next week and into the Labor Day Weekend!  

So enjoy this great weather because this won’t last long into September.

Tropical Storm Fay is in the process this afternoon to make a THIRD land fall over Florida, which is an extremely rare occurrence.  While Tropical Storm Fay has sustained 60 mph winds, the most obvious threat here is the extentive and extreme flooding over much of the central and northeastern Florida Peninsula.  Currently over 20 inches of rain has fallen over many locations in Florida and before Fay exits central Florida, over 30 inches of rain can fall.  

Currently, locations like Gainesville, Ocala, Orlando, and Jacksonville are receiving very heavy rainfall.  Rainfall rates in these locations range from 0.25″ to 1.5″ per hour.  Consider the fact that Fay is moving at 2 mph to the west-northwest, a significant amount of rainfall will still fall over this locations.  So as you can see, significant flooding is going to be a big problem for much of Florida and southern Georgia through the next several days.

To what is the future of Fay?  Fay will continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 24 hours.  Now, I expect Fay to weaken over Florida in this time period, but not in a dramatic fashion.  So the entire northern portion of the Florida Peninsula can expect tropical storm force winds and heavy rain over the next 24 hours.  The question that we’ll have to wait to see is whether Fay exits into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico for a short time or remain over the Panhandle.  This question will be answered by how far north in latitude Fay will get before approaching locations like Perry.  If Fay gets back over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, then some intensification is possible.  Regardless, Fay will move towards the Florida Panhandle and then weaken over southern Alabama and southern Mississippi this weekend and into early next week.  The main threat from Fay will remain the very heavy rains expected throughout northern Florida, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi.  

Fay or the remnants of Fay will linger around the Gulf Coast through the week, which will produce some pretty impressive rainfall totals.  Fay will eventually start to move towards the Mid Atlantic by the end of the week ahead of a fast moving trough and associated cold front.  At this time, I’m not sure how much moisture will remain from the remnants of Fay, but the mid level moisture should enhance what would have been a dry and rather weak cold front.

Good afternoon!

First, I just want to address the lack of posts this morning.  I did do the usual forecast updates, but then there were some server issues beyond my control that would not let me update the site.  Hopefully these issues have been resolved and everything can go as usual.  

I am going to update the latest on Tropical Storm Fay in the next post, which is dropping a historic amount of rainfall on the Sun Shine State.  Hmmm, they may have to change their name.  

As for the forecast, as you can see outside, generally clear skies and comfortable conditions continue and you can expect them to continue for the next several days!  

Hey!  I got a long weekend ahead now!  WOHO!  

Updates on Tropical Storm Fay in a few minutes.