NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

While high pressure dominates much of the nation, there are some trouble spots to keep an eye on today.  

First, the obvious area of concern remains over northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern South Carolina as feeder bands from Tropical Storm Fay move through the region.  The interaction of the low and mid level circulation combined with the friction of the land will produce low level shear, which will lead to the potential for isolated tornadoes.  Otherwise, expect heavy rain with strong wind gusts from the thunderstorms with gusts exceeding 55 mph.  Given this is a tropical air mass through out the atmosphere, the threat for hail will be slim in my opinion.  However, further to the north over South Carolina, the threat does increase slightly.

The second area of concern is over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes.  A cold front and a deepening trough will move through this region.  Wind shear aloft will increase as winds will veer from the south at the surface to west at 500 MB.  Further, strong PVA will enhance lifting over the region, which will break the weakening cap this afternoon.  The addition of cool, dry air aloft will also support the development of large hail in some of the thunderstorms.  The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts over 55 mph, large hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and an isolated tornado.

Tropical Storm Fay this morning is still a well organized tropical storm this morning.  Although naturally weakening over the northern Florida Peninsula, Fay still has sustained 50 mph winds and is producing some very heavy rainfall.  Many locations have received over 20 inches of rain from Fay and flooding is being reported across much of the central and northern Florida Peninsula.  

Fay will continue to move west-northwest around 6 mph through this afternoon.  Fay will reach the northwestern coast of Florida by this late afternoon or evening and briefly enter into the Gulf of Mexico.  I think there is some potential for some strengthening tonight through early Sunday, however Fay should remain below hurricane strength.  

Tropical Storm Fay will make a fourth and finally fifth landfall over the Panhandle of Florida and the Alabama coast this weekend as the tropical storm skirts the eastern Gulf Coast before finally moving inland on Sunday night.  The main threat from Fay is going to be the very heavy rain that will produce areas of flooding through out much of northern Florida, southern Alabama, and southern Georgia.  

Tropical Storm Fay will then weaken over the Southeast and then will move towards the Mid Atlantic by the end of the week as a strong trough forces the remnants to the north and east.  Tropical Storm Fay will likely go down as a tropical storm that produced historic rainfall amounts over northern Florida and produced widespread flooding.

The local forecast discussion is updated!

Today through the entire weekend will be perfect for going to the beach, ball game, or just enjoying any outdoor venue.  High pressure will continue to reign supreme through the period, however trouble is not far off into the future.  Two cold fronts will impact the forecast area next week and the remnants of Fay will eventually have an impact on the forecast area.  Here are the themes covered in the technical forecast discussion.

1.  High pressure on the move.

2.  Colds rotating through next week.

3.  Remnants of Fay visiting or just missing?