NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Storm Fay is now over the Panhandle of Florida and will continue to the west-northwest along the eastern and central Gulf Coast over the next three days.  The heaviest rainfall remains on the eastern side of circulation, which is impacting much of northern Florida and southwestern Georgia.  

I don’t expect Fay to strength much through the next 48 hours, but maintain or slowly weaken as Fay continues to interact with land.  The main threat from Fay over the next several days will be the very heavy rain.  Florida is under significant flood impacts with rainfall amounts in some locations exceeding 30 inches!  Although I do not expect that type of rainfall for the rest of the Southeast, flooding will be an issue throughout much of the Southeast and specifically along the Gulf Coast due to the weakening Fay and the remnant moisture from Fay as the week goes further.

The future of Fay will be directly impacted by a stalling cold front over the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast on Wednesday.  As an upper trough moves into the Plains on Tuesday evening and Wednesday, the remnants of Fay will begin to move to the northeast and interact with the stalling cold front.  The frontal boundary will become a focusing component for the remnant moisture and move back towards the north which will spread heavy rainfall throughout much of the Mid Atlantic and possibly Northeast.

This local forecast discussion is updated!

A great weekend is expected with dry, comfortable conditions, which will be great for any out door activities.  However, while this past week was quiet, I think next week is going to keep me very busy as we have two low pressure systems impacting the forecast area and a high pressure system that may do more harm than good for later in the week. 

Here are the themes I covered in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Great weather continuing but for how long?

2. Severe weather possible on Monday?

3. Fay brings the heavy rain blues to the Mid Atlantic.