NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

The local forecast discussion is updated.

Another great day for the weekend to do any and all outdoor activities!  However trouble is brewing to the west and this coming week is going to be a heck of a lot more active than the past 10 days.  A cold front will be followed by fall like conditions for the middle of the week, but then the remnants of Fay will visit the region by the end of this week.  Here are the themes I covered in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Increasing clouds will lead to showers by tomorrow.

2. The exiting trough will have a lot of direct and indirect influences on this week’s weather.

3. The remnants of Fay will put an early damper on the Labor Day weekend.

Two other disturbances are currently being monitored over the Tropical Atlantic.  The first is over the eastern Caribbean, which is showing some signs of development this morning.  The showers and thunderstorms are developing around a weak low level center of circulation.  However, to this point, the circulation remains disorganized.  However, upper level conditions are favorable for development and may lead to a tropical depression forming in the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, another disturbance 525 mile to the northeast of the Leeward Islands has some slight potential for development.  However, wind shear from the exiting trough along the East coast in the next 24 hours should put an end to any threat from this disturbance.  

I think the main threat for tropical development is that disturbance over the Caribbean and model guidance takes a closed tropical low from the Caribbean into the Bahamas by the end of the week, so this disturbance clearly needs to be watched.  The good news is that there is potential that the trough that will move through the East on Saturday will keep this disturbance or tropical low away from the East coast, but the forecast is still too uncertain to be confident in the exact track of the disturbance.