NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

New Tropical Disturbance To Keep An Eye On

Two other disturbances are currently being monitored over the Tropical Atlantic.  The first is over the eastern Caribbean, which is showing some signs of development this morning.  The showers and thunderstorms are developing around a weak low level center of circulation.  However, to this point, the circulation remains disorganized.  However, upper level conditions are favorable for development and may lead to a tropical depression forming in the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, another disturbance 525 mile to the northeast of the Leeward Islands has some slight potential for development.  However, wind shear from the exiting trough along the East coast in the next 24 hours should put an end to any threat from this disturbance.  

I think the main threat for tropical development is that disturbance over the Caribbean and model guidance takes a closed tropical low from the Caribbean into the Bahamas by the end of the week, so this disturbance clearly needs to be watched.  The good news is that there is potential that the trough that will move through the East on Saturday will keep this disturbance or tropical low away from the East coast, but the forecast is still too uncertain to be confident in the exact track of the disturbance.