NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Depression Developing Over Caribbean Sea

The tropical disturbance over the eastern Caribbean is looking very healthy this morning.  A low level circulation is clearly visible in the IR satellite pictures this morning with plenty of convection surrounding the center of circulation.  Cloud tops are becoming very cold, suggesting strong rising motion associated with this tropical system and favorable upper level conditions via anticyclonic circulation supporting outflow.  

I think this disturbance will become a tropical depression by the end of the day if not the end of this morning.  The circulation is becoming well developed and the upper level conditions will be favorable for development through the next 48 hours.

The future of this disturbance though should not impact the Gulf of Mexico.  An upper level low and the upper level winds from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the western Caribbean will be from the southwest over the next seven days.  This will steer any tropical disturbance or wave that enters the Caribbean to move to the north over the Caribbean Islands of Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, which is exactly where I think and most models project this disturbance to go.  From there, the track of this disturbance is naturally unknown.  However, I would suggest any interest over the Bahamas or East coast should keep an eye on this system.