NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Hurricane Gustav Continues To Strengthen In The Caribbean

Twenty-four hours ago, a strong tropical disturbance was developing over the eastern Caribbean.  This morning, hurricane Gustav is roughly 100 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti.  Gustav is currently a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph sustained winds, but conditions will become increasingly favorable for development and there is the potential for Gustav to become a major hurricane.  The latest model guidance now suggest that the ridge over the Bahamas and Florida will force Gustav to the south of Cuba.  This will keep Gustav over the very warm waters of the western Caribbean for a longer period of time and produce favorable upper level conditions for intensification.  

Gustav will then enter the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning.  A weakness over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce a south to southwesterly steering current, which will force Gustav to turn to the north and threaten the central and eastern Gulf Coast by the end of the Labor Day weekend.  I think there is significant potential for Gustav to become a major hurricane within the next 3 to 5 days, and have a significant impact on the Gulf Coast by early next week.