NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

While Gustav continues to move through the Caribbean, additional disturbances have shown some potential for development over the Atlantic.  One disturbance is located roughly 500 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  This disturbance is being influenced by strong southwesterly shear, which is limiting the potential for development.  However, upper level conditions are expected to improve, which will allow this disturbance the potential to organize and strengthen in the next 48 hours.  Tropical model guidance strongly suggest that this disturbance will eventually develop into an organized tropical low pressure system.

Also, a strong disturbance 400 miles southwest of Cape Verde is showing signs of potential development over the next 48 hours.  Building high pressure over the central and eastern Atlantic will support favorable conditions for development and would direct the disturbance towards the northern Caribbean over the next 5 days.  Model guidance also supports the development of this tropical system into a strong tropical low pressure system.

The good news is that a strong upper low off the New England coast will extend a trough down the western Atlantic, which will protect the East coast from any tropical influences.

Gustav this morning is being impacted by the higher terrain of Haiti this morning, which has weakened Gustav to a tropical storm.  However, Gustav is expected to quickly restrengthen over the next 24 hours to a hurricane once again.

Now, I want to be very careful about what I say here.  The forecast from almost every tropical model guidance I have seen would suggest that Gustav will reach major hurricane status by Saturday Night over the southern waters of western Cuba and then continue to strengthen once entering the Gulf of Mexico into possibly a Category 4 hurricane.  When it comes to forecasting for hurricanes, we still must acknowledge the unknown like the influence of unforecasted mid level disturbances or stronger than forecasted wind shear.  However, the latest model guidance would strongly suggest extremely favorable conditions over much of the Gulf of Mexico for Gustav to intensify.  

Where will Gustav go?  Well, I’m pretty confident on the idea that Gustav will reach the central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning.  By then, a weakness in a building ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will support steering currents from the south and southwest, which would focus the threat of Gustav from the eastern coast of Texas through the Panhandle of Florida.  I think it is too early to pin point an exact land fall or day of land fall at this time.  However, I would strongly suggest that all residents along the Gulf Coast to prepare or set up plans to get out of the region.

The local forecast discussion is updated!

Looks like the upper low will win out versus the remnants of Fay over the southern Mid Atlantic as I’m going with a drier forecast than what I thought last night.  The question was never strength, but position of the upper low, which model guidance had a difficult time handling.  However, this morning’s water vapor images seal the deal in that respect.  The following are themes I covered in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Strong upper low is the winner and champion.

2.  Cold front a threat for Saturday.

3.  A quiet start to September.