NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Gustav Temporarily Weakens

Gustav this morning is being impacted by the higher terrain of Haiti this morning, which has weakened Gustav to a tropical storm.  However, Gustav is expected to quickly restrengthen over the next 24 hours to a hurricane once again.

Now, I want to be very careful about what I say here.  The forecast from almost every tropical model guidance I have seen would suggest that Gustav will reach major hurricane status by Saturday Night over the southern waters of western Cuba and then continue to strengthen once entering the Gulf of Mexico into possibly a Category 4 hurricane.  When it comes to forecasting for hurricanes, we still must acknowledge the unknown like the influence of unforecasted mid level disturbances or stronger than forecasted wind shear.  However, the latest model guidance would strongly suggest extremely favorable conditions over much of the Gulf of Mexico for Gustav to intensify.  

Where will Gustav go?  Well, I’m pretty confident on the idea that Gustav will reach the central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning.  By then, a weakness in a building ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will support steering currents from the south and southwest, which would focus the threat of Gustav from the eastern coast of Texas through the Panhandle of Florida.  I think it is too early to pin point an exact land fall or day of land fall at this time.  However, I would strongly suggest that all residents along the Gulf Coast to prepare or set up plans to get out of the region.