NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Atlantic Activity Increasing

While Gustav continues to move through the Caribbean, additional disturbances have shown some potential for development over the Atlantic.  One disturbance is located roughly 500 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  This disturbance is being influenced by strong southwesterly shear, which is limiting the potential for development.  However, upper level conditions are expected to improve, which will allow this disturbance the potential to organize and strengthen in the next 48 hours.  Tropical model guidance strongly suggest that this disturbance will eventually develop into an organized tropical low pressure system.

Also, a strong disturbance 400 miles southwest of Cape Verde is showing signs of potential development over the next 48 hours.  Building high pressure over the central and eastern Atlantic will support favorable conditions for development and would direct the disturbance towards the northern Caribbean over the next 5 days.  Model guidance also supports the development of this tropical system into a strong tropical low pressure system.

The good news is that a strong upper low off the New England coast will extend a trough down the western Atlantic, which will protect the East coast from any tropical influences.