NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Hurricane Ike Moves Just South Of Cuba, Threat For Texas Coast

Hurricane Ike has once again been moving further south than what was forecasted, which has allowed Hurricane Ike to move over the waters south of the Island of Cuba and the Island of Youth (yes, I checked it is actually called that according to google maps and Wikipedia).  As a result, the interaction of the warm waters off southern Cuba has allowed Ike to retain a strong low level circulation and has shown some slight signs of strengthening over the past few hours.  Given that Hurricane Ike will now move over the warm waters north of the Island of Youth and over the lowest parts of Cuba (western edge of Cuba) over the next 24 hours, Ike will remain a hurricane through the entire time impacting Cuba.  

So what can we expect from Hurricane Ike the rest of the way?  Well, I have some good news for everyone from Florida to Louisiana!  Strong high pressure at 500 MB is forecasted to continue to build along the Gulf Coast.  This forecast is supported by all model guidance.  As a result, an east to west steering current will prevent Hurricane Ike to gain little in latitude over the next 3 days.  The ridge will also produce favorable conditions for Hurricane Ike to intensify, possibly into a major hurricane once again by Friday morning.  

The majority of the model guidance now guides Hurricane Ike towards the Texas coast with a cone of possibility from Houston to Brownsville, Texas.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the exact track 5 days out, but by early Saturday morning, Hurricane Ike will be making land fall along the Texas coast.  

The long range forecast for the remnants of Ike suggest that the moisture and remnant low may interact with a old cold front and a deepening trough, which will produce heavy rain throughout the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Northeast by next week.  This forecast is dependent on the strength of the ridge and trough by Saturday night and the latitude of Ike by landfall.