NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Evening Thoughts

There’s a lot going on tonight despite the quiet weather over the forecast area right now.  

The moisture from the Southwest Monsoon is really starting to organize into an impressive rain event from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley this evening.  This moisture will race towards the forecast area over the next 24 hours, which will produce generally overcast skies for most of Friday followed by widespread showers and thunderstorms by Friday night.  The main focus will be along the warm front, which will push through the forecast area Friday evening and Saturday with widespread showers through the period.  This does not mean a complete wash out for everyone, however the isentropic lifting will support period of heavy rainfall followed by breaks with even some sun every once in a while.

Originally, I was expecting the cold front to follow on Sunday.  However, the remnants of Hurricane Ike will slow the cold front down to a crawl and the front will not move through the forecast area until after the remnant low of Ike passes through the forecast area on Monday evening.  There is a question as to how much rain will fall from the remnants of Ike, but the potential is there for some locations to receive heavy downpours from the remnant moisture on Monday.  There is also the issue that Sunday is going to turn out to be very warm and humid with possibly a brief return of lower 90’s over the Philadelphia metro.  Especially with the model guidance suggesting 850 MB temperatures around 20°C on Sunday afternoon.

As for Hurricane Ike this evening, Ike is looking very impressive and healthy.  Hurricane Ike has grown in size, nearly covering all of the Gulf of Mexico this evening.  Hurricane Ike is starting to pass over the warmest waters in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 8 hours and here is where I think the potential remains for Hurricane Ike to reach Category 3 or 4 strength once again.  This evening, Hurricane Ike looks to make landfall early Saturday morning to the south of Houston, which means the potential exist for Houston Bay to get a 20 to 30 foot storm surge, which would be very dangerous and destructive.  Meanwhile, the heavy rain involved with Ike can add up to 10 to 20 inches of rain easily if not more.  I’m not even taking into account the strong winds, which could exceed 120 mph sustained.  Overall, this entire situation is not looking very good for residents in and south of Houston.  

WEB SITE NEWS

I just want to let everyone know that I’m getting that itchy redesign feeling again and will be making some cosmetic changes to the website.  More of a Fall/Winter feel as we progress into September.