NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

The Amplification Begins

The pattern is becoming more amplified and we will begin to feel the effects of the amplification by Wednesday night.

First, it’s interesting to see that all model guidance now keeps the southern branch disturbance not only separate, but nearly shears the disturbance apart as the northern branch of the Jet Stream dominates the eastern United States.  

A warm front with some hint of coastal cyclogenesis will move through the forecast area on Thursday with rain, heavy at times.  I think we will see a weak area of low pressure develop along the New Jersey coast, which will enhance mid level forcing and lead to a period of steady rainfall on Thursday evening and night.  

The rain will lift north with a break for Friday morning.  Expect some rather mild conditions on Friday as the forecast area will be in the warm sector ahead of a very strong cold front.  

By Friday evening, the cold front will begin to slowly move through the forecast area.  The upper level winds will run slightly parallel to the surface cold front, which will cause the cold front to move slowly through the forecast area on Friday evening and allow showers to linger into Saturday morning.  I’m thinking that a quart to a half inch of rain will be possible from the warm and cold front throughout the forecast area.  

The cold air at 850 MB will first drive south towards the Gulf Coast and then push east, thus the cold air will not enter the forecast area until late on Saturday.  Cold, Canadian high pressure will build into the forecast area on Sunday and Monday with clear skies and below normal temperatures.  850 MB temperatures will range around -5°C.