NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Foggy Start Will Lead To Very Warm Conditions This Afternoon, Changes On The Way

As you can see with the title, there is a lot of topics to cover over as we look at the next three days.

Dense fog will slowly burn off through the morning, but visibility will likely remain below a mile in many locations through at least mid morning.  The fog is certainly an indication of just how moisture loaded the atmosphere is this morning.  

The water vapor this morning clearly shows a significant amount of moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the slowly progressing cold front over the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Through much of the day, I expect generally dry conditions as far as precipitation.  The low clouds will likely continue to be an issue and will limit the clearing that will develop above 850 MB, which would have lead to a partly cloudy day.  Temperatures are already in the lower to upper 50’s throughout much of the forecast area, and I don’t expect any problems for high temperatures to reach the lower to mid 60’s with 850 MB temperatures around 10°C. 

The cold front will continue to slowly press to the east tonight and through tomorrow.  Upper level winds will continue to remain parrelle to the surface cold front through Saturday evening.  A jet maximum will develop over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, which will enhance low pressure development along the cold front on Saturday.  The strong divergence and diffluence aloft coupled with a strong 30 to 45 KT low level jet at 850 MB will support heavy rainfall over the forecast area through Saturday.  A few embedded thunderstorms in the heavy rainfall will be capable of produce strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, and occasional lightning.  I think the main threat, besides the heavy rainfall, will be the strong wind gusts on Saturday afternoon.  As rain cooled air rushes down towards the surface, expect wind gusts up to 50 MPH to develop at times.  As for rainfall amounts, 1 to 2 inches of rain can be expected with locally higher amounts.  Urban and small stream flooding will be possible in some locations.  

After the cold front exits the forecast area on Saturday evening, temperatures will crash into the 40’s.  However, the real impact of the cold air will not be felt until Sunday.  As strong Canadian high pressure builds into the forecast area, the strong pressure gradient will produce windy conditions through much of Sunday.  Meanwhile, 850 temperatures will continue to fall due to CAA into the 0° to -5° range.  As a result, I don’t expect temperatures to rise much if at all from the morning lows on Sunday.  Combine mid 40’s to lower 50’s with a gusty wind, and temperatures will likely feel like the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.

The pattern is not through yet, as more interesting developments are on the way.