NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Very Wet Day Expected, Cold Change On The Way

The forecast area is in store for a very wet Saturday.  The second disturbance associated with this large long wave trough is currently moving through the forecast area with moderate to heavy rain from eastern North Carolina to the Hudson Valley.  This rainfall is not making much progression to the east and rain will continue to move from south to north through the day.  However, more rainfall is on the way with the cold front.  

There is a significant amount of moisture over the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast.  The break over central Pennsylvania is more the result of a lack of lifting than a lack of moisture.  However, as mid level forcing continues to increase over much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast combined with low level forcing from the strong cold front; the rain will quickly fill in this break in the precipitation.  This is already starting to occur this morning and I expect a continuation of this trend through the morning.  The cold front will approach the forecast area by late this afternoon or early evening with heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms.  I also expect, as rain cooled air races towards the surface, that very windy conditions will develop just ahead of the cold front.  Anyone heading out this evening better beware of some gusty winds along with the rainfall.

Once the cold front clears, temperatures will fall into the 40’s throughout the forecast area.  The real impact of the CAA will not be felt until tomorrow afternoon.  Although temperatures will not be cold in the morning, the morning lows will basically be the afternoon highs as temperatures only rise rough 2 to 5 degrees from low to high.  The good news is I do expect dry conditions through Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure takes hold.

A weak disturbance will approach the forecast area on Monday afternoon and evening.  There is a slight chance of a flurry with this disturbance, but I don’t expect much out of this passing clipper.  Temperatures are Monday will average 5 to 8 degrees below normal with highs struggling in the 40’s.