NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Amid Model Flips And Phantom Storms, Cold Conditions Prevail

I’m sure that those who have been monitoring the models like a hawk have a bit of a headache as each run seems to show a different solution from model to model and run to run.  Of course, the most exciting has been the GFS, which did have a nice snow storm depicted for next weekend up until last night, with a more inland track of a potential low pressure system for Saturday.  

Let me explain why I don’t foresee any type of snow event for the coastal plain right now for the last two weeks of November.  First of all, the upper level pattern is not conducive for a snowfall along the coast.  The NAO is positive right now, which means that no blocking exists for a disturbance to slow down, develop along the coast, and for cold air to be trapped along the coast via high pressure.  Also, another important factor is the warm waters along the coast, which means the storm track will have to be nearly perfect for a significant snowfall along the coast.  Otherwise, the coastal front will have no trouble moving into the coastal plain and changing precipitation to a cold rain.  So while the GFS sure does look nice and may be a very accurate view of the future weather pattern in a few weeks, right now I just don’t see the support.

The forecast area will continue to be under the influence of the trough on Thursday, as one last disturbance moves through the region.  A few isolated snow showers will be possible, but the main impact from this disturbance will be to reenforce the cold air over the forecast area.  

High pressure will move through the forecast area on Friday and Saturday with clear and dry conditions.  Temperatures will begin to moderate as the coldest 850 MB temperatures begin to lift to the north and east of the region.  Overall though, surface temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal.  

A strong disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream will develop a low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley and move towards the Ohio Valley by Saturday night.  As the secondary low develops over Virginia, high pressure will exit the Northeast.  The combination of the position of the low pressure system and the exiting high pressure system will produce a stiff easterly wind, which will all but guarantee a rain event for the coast.  However, there is potential for a mix or even a brief period of all snow for the interior locations of the forecast area with limited accumulations.