NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Slow Moderation Ahead Of Another Cold Wave Expected

The end of next weekend will have some moderation, however before we get to that point, temperatures will average 8 to 12 degrees below normal for highs from Thursday through Saturday.  

Another weak disturbance will move through the forecast area on Thursday with a few isolated rain and snow showers and some reinforcing cold air.  High pressure will build into the forecast area Friday and Saturday with dry conditions and partly cloudy skies.  

The model guidance is having a difficult time forecasting the Sunday/Monday period.  The ECMWF is way too strong with an upper disturbance over the Great Lakes on Sunday night and the GFS barely registers the disturbance at all.  I went with a blend of the guidance and leaned on the Ensemble GFS for the Sunday/Monday period.  

A cold front will approach the forecast area on Sunday night with increasing clouds and moderating temperatures.  High temperatures will rebound to near normal on Sunday afternoon.  The cold front will move through by Monday with scattered showers and falling temperatures by the evening.  The cold front will not have a great deal of precipitation, but will be noticed as winds quickly shift to the northwest and temperatures fall.  

The below normal temperatures return for the rest of the week of Thanksgiving, however I don’t expect any significant storm in this period.  The north Atlantic blocking needed for coastal storms will not develop yet, which will lead to a more progressive pattern for North America.  So once again, I’ll state that the blocking and the interesting winter weather should not unfold until early December and not before then.

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