NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Weak Clippers and Cold Temperatures

So is everyone welcoming an early visit by winter?  If not, then you are not going to enjoy the forecast discussions today nor much of December.  More on that later.

Cloudy conditions are expected through much of the day as a weak clipper moves towards the Mid Atlantic coast.  The low currently (6:50 AM) is over the eastern Great Lakes, and embedded in the strong cyclonic flow of the large scale trough over the Northeast.  The low pressure system will move towards the forecast area by this evening with cloudy conditions and snow showers developing.

Once the low pressure system reaches the warm Gulf Stream waters tomorrow morning, the low pressure system will rapidly intensify due to the strong thermal gradient from the surface to 850 MB.  As a result, a few snow showers will develop over the region, but I do not expect significant precipitation from this low pressure system.  In general, a few flurries in the morning and that’s about it.  

The clipper will bring a much more important impact to the forecast area, which is some very cold air once again into the forecast area.  Of the next three days, today will be the warmest.  Temperatures will average 8 to 16 degrees below normal through this period with the coldest temperatures on Friday and Saturday.  850 MB temperatures will range from -10 to -14 degrees C, which strongly supports temperatures struggling in the 30’s, so I went slightly below guidance and stayed below 40 degrees for a high throughout the forecast area.  The northwesterly winds at 10 to 20 mph won’t help matters either with wind chills in the upper 10’s to lower 30’s in the afternoon.

But wait!  There is more to come, but you know that if you’ve been reading my thoughts about this December and the winter in general.