NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Warmer Conditions For The Start Of The Week

If you want an idea of how cold last week was, consider this.  Temperatures will return to normal this week with the morning lows for tomorrow morning being in the same range as last week’s highs for much of last week.  Impressive right?

Clouds will begin to increase today as a cold front with a great deal of moisture ahead of the boundary coming from the Gulf of Mexico will approach the region.  Winds will be from the south around 5 to 10 mph, aiding in the WAA throughout the atmosphere.  I expect clouds to first increase with high level cirrus followed by mid and then lower level stratus by the late afternoon and evening.  

Precipitation is building and expanding throughout the Ohio Valley this morning and will continue to do so through the day.  

By tonight, the cold front will slowly enter central Pennsylvania.  Strong PVA will move through the forecast area, producing lifting over the forecast area and supporting wide spread rainfall for the region.  A disturbance at 500 MB will intensify through tonight into tomorrow morning, forming a strong closed 500 MB low over the Great Lakes.  This position of the upper low will initially put the primary low over southwestern New York and not along the coast.  This position combined with the strong southerly winds at all levels of the atmosphere will put an end to any threat for frozen precipitation throughout the forecast area.  

The coastal low will take shape and develop over the Long Island Sound on Tuesday with rain, heavy at times, throughout the forecast area, especially in the morning.  The low pressure system will track towards northern New England with steady rain ending in the afternoon and evening hours.

The upper low will remain over the Northeast on Wednesday, sending areas of weak disturbances through the forecast area.  Although I expect most locations to be dry, there is a risk for a stray rain/snow showers over the region through Wednesday night and into Thursday.  

Temperatures will start near to above normal, but return to slightly below normal levels by Wednesday and Thanksgiving.

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