NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Rainy End To Weekend Setting Up

There is a lot to go over this morning in regards to this period and the medium range period.  Let’s dive into what should be a roller coaster of temperatures!  

The first feature I want to detail is the stronger than forecasted CAD over the forecast area.  The CAD, which overall is still weak, extends from the Hudson Valley to Northeastern Pennsylvania with temperatures running near to slightly above freezing this morning.  The important aspect of the CAD isn’t the current temperatures, but the lower dew points.  The drier air in place will allow temperatures to wet bulb towards freezing tonight into tomorrow as precipitation approaches.  Now, I am NOT calling for widespread accumulations of snow over the interior, however the presence of the CAD will pretty much ensure that locations above 1000 feet in elevation over northeastern Pennsylvania and the central Hudson Valley will start with a mix of snow, sleet, and rain before an eventual change over to all rain.

After a lot of waffling by the model guidance, two ideas have finally evolved with the storm for tomorrow.  A coastal low will form, and that the primary will remain over the Ohio Valley to eastern Great Lakes.  As a result, while precipitation will be enhanced by the developing low pressure system along the Mid Atlantic coast, the precipitation will remain rain with the cold air well to the west.  I’m expecting around a half inch of rain to fall, with up to an inch possible in isolated locations.

Scattered showers will move through the forecast area on Monday as the upper low lifts north and the pattern begins to change to a much colder state.  More on that in the next post!

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