While I am breaking down the current radar and satellite images, I think it is a good time to discuss the latest guidance with the set up for next week.

First and foremost, it is NOT wise to try to figure out the rain/snow line positions of any storm 4 or 5 days out.  You can do a general idea, like location A is in the warm sector and B is in the cold sector.  However, the idea of saying who gets snow, sleet, or rain is basically pushing the reasonable use of the data available.  

The most important aspect of the upcoming pattern is that we are progressing towards a cold and wet pattern rather than a cold and dry pattern.  What this mean is that the track of the high pressure system will cut across the Great Lakes, which basically increases the potential for CAD over the coastal plain.  The pattern developing is basically a split jet stream pattern.  The southern branch cuts across the Pacific Northwest around the developing trough off the West coast and runs across the Plains and towards the southern Mid Atlantic.  Meanwhile, the northern branch is significantly amplified by the strong -EPO signal, which builds a ridge over western Alaska and continues to support a northwestern flow from central Canada to the Plains and then off to the East.  What we have setting up is a pattern where the Plains to the northern Mid Atlantic is the battle ground for some active disturbances over the next few weeks.  While this is NOT the best pattern for those south of the forecast area, I think this pattern will make many snow/winter lovers happy as we progress through the rest of December.  

As for the storm for the end of the week, I have said and continue to say that the risk is certainly there.  Before I start doing my own little snow dance, I would wait to see how the 00Z guidance progresses.  The reason why is that the disturbances that will drive this developing pattern will begin to enter an area of better data resolution and as a result, the influence of pattern data for the GFS and ECMWF will be important to observe tonight.

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