NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

A Break In The Pattern, Not Broken Pattern

As the storm races towards the Canadian Maritimes, cold air will rush into the forecast area once again with temperatures falling back to slightly below to near normal conditions for the weekend.  However, there are larger changes going on at 500 MB.

The overall 500 MB pattern will briefly readjust with a trough over the West coast and a ridge over the East.  Temperatures at 850 MB will slowly moderate on both Saturday and Sunday, however the strong WAA driven by the departing high pressure will not begin until Monday and Tuesday.  Meanwhile, the strong upper low that has been over northern Canada will begin the process of dropping south and west, thus supporting the Pacific Northwest trough.  The overall position of the upper level pattern will support a large ridge over the eastern third of the nation up until Wednesday.

However, beyond the medium range, the ridge gets beaten down.  The overall atmospheric pattern still suggest that the cold air will return to the East and a negative PNA upper level pattern will be a dominant feature going into the end of December and the beginning of January.  However, the big news is that the 500 MB upper low is trending in the model guidance towards southeastern Canada, which would support building heights over Greenland.  The building of heights over Greenland is becoming strongly supported by the latest stratospheric data, so I think we are heading towards interesting times for the East coast after a brief break.  

Before I end though, I want to give everyone a different view of this break down.  Frankly, the break down in the cold pattern shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.  We’ve been in a cold pattern since November 15 so basically we’ve been in this pattern for over 20 days.  Now, we enter a break.  A break which is getting shorter in time with each model run.  Remember a few days ago, the warm up was going to last for 5+ days, now we are down to 2 days of significantly above normal temperatures for next week.  So I hope this gives everyone an idea of the overall trend here.  The warm will not last and the cold pattern has more support.

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