Sneaky Arctic Air And The Storm Track For Next Week

11:12 AM

Right off the bat, I want to say I don’t have a lot of confidence in the medium and extended forecast for this forecast area and much of the Mid Atlantic.  There is a rule I learned long ago from a great professor I had in college, beware of temperature guidance and the ability for that guidance to handle the position of arctic air masses.  

Now, I know the model guidance has latched onto the idea for the storm track to push north of the forecast area for this week, which would naturally support a majority of rainfall, and a lot of rainfall at that, for the forecast area.  My concern right now is for the interior locations for this week where the cold, dense air can lock in over these locations and lead to another impressive ice event for the forecast area.  My concern along the coast is the actual retreat of the cold air and the timing of such event.  The 12Z GFS appears to be a bit too quick in the exit in my opinion and thus I think the potential is there for a mix of snow, sleet, and rain along the coast before a change over to a rain event for the middle and end of the week.  

Look, the end of the week is all about two front locations, the surface front location and the 850 MB front location.  Waves of low pressure will ride along both of these fronts to bring a continuous threat for snow, sleet, and rain to the forecast area.  Why am I cautious in this period?  

1. Model guidance continues to place high pressure to the north of the forecast area.  The position of the high pressure will support a marginal CAD development, especially over the interior.  

2. There is some disagreement in just how far south the cold front gets before stalling, and if the model is under performing the ability of the CAA at the surface and 850 MB, then we are looking at a much more icy situation for the forecast area away from the immediate coast.  

Thus, my concern and uneasy state in the forecast.  

Now, for those of you in the I-95 corridor, look the pattern just does not support snow or ice events until we get the negative NAO going, especially this time of year.  The water temperatures right now support a strong coastal front that would warm up the boundary layer above freezing no matter the track of low pressure.  As such, don’t expect frozen precipitation until that negative NAO develops, which locks in the cold air over the Mid Atlantic.

So there is where we stand right now.  There continues to be a threat for snow, ice, and rain for the forecast area with a more significant threat for the interior.  I do question the extent of the warm air into the forecast area, and for now went with temperatures staying near normal throughout the forecast area.

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