7:12 AM

I don’t think there needs to be any more debate on whether the NAO will go negative or whether a block will form over Greenland.  The fact is that the block has already formed over the eastern North Atlantic (think northwestern Europe) and is starting to retrograde towards Greenland.  

Now what does this block mean for the overall pattern going forward?  Well, let me just say this.  The models may want to break down the ridge over Greenland too fast as these types of blocks do not give way to easily.  That is the very nature of an upper level blocking pattern.  The influence of this potentially strong negative NAO will have lasting impacts through the rest of the winter in my opinion.  

For one, the ability to keep cold air over the coastal plain will be greatly increased through the rest of the winter once this block becomes established.  High pressure will, in most cases, keep high pressure locked in over Ontario/Quebec or at least slow the progression of the high pressure down much more than the previous storms this winter.  

Another impact will be the ability for low pressure systems to redevelop off the Mid Atlantic coast and in a much fast fashion.  Remember in 2007/08 winter where low pressure systems would race into the Ohio Valley and redevelopment would begin along the coast plain.  However, the primary low remained over the interior for too long, ending any chance for the cold air to remain in place for much of the forecast area.  That will not be an issue under this type of blocking influence.  Low pressure systems like to go to and develop in areas of least resistance.  A blocking ridge over Greenland is the exact opposite of least resistance and as such, low pressure that track towards the Ohio Valley will be more likely to redevelop and transition towards the coast much faster through the rest of the season.  

Expect the overall pattern to slow down.  What I mean is that the pace of the disturbances that dive into the trough will diminish slightly as a “log jam” develops over the north Atlantic.  The result of this “log jam” would likely intensify the block further for mid January, and that in itself will have lasting influences into February.  

Finally, as we look in general into the rest of January and into February, I think while the pattern will likely relax at some point, as amplification has to decline at some point.  However, the potential for a negative NAO to quickly intensify again will be much easier to develop for the rest of the winter and into March.  Unlike up to this point where we had to get all the pieces in order and had to wait for the “puzzle” pieces to be built, for the rest of the winter season, the pieces are already in place.  The block simply intensifies and the 50/50 low strengthens, and the cold pattern easily returns.  So any idea of winter ending after January (you know, the same people that were screaming blow torch for January) will be wrong in my opinion.  Winter does not end in January, February, nor March.  That’s where I stand.

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