The coastal low is now the primary low pressure system, but that has occurred a bit too late for much of an impact for the Philadelphia metro, northeastern Pennsylvania, and northwestern New Jersey.
Light to moderate snow will continue for about another 30 to 45 minutes along the immediate central New Jersey coast or basically Monmouth and Ocean counties of New Jersey. Light to moderate snow will continue to fall over New York City for another 60 to 90 minutes with light acccumulations. Meanwhile, Long Island and Connecticut look to be the big winners in the forecast area. Banding will continue to increase within the precipitation shield as the coastal low intensifies. The explosion of cold cloud tops to the south of Long Island suggest a period of heavy snow will continue over central/eastern Long Island and central/eastern Connecticut. Snowfall totals will have the potential to exceed 3 inches in some locations by tomorrow morning.
Looking forward, the next disturbance that will bring snow to the forecast area tomorrow evening is rather energetic disturbance. This disturbance would have all the making of a moderate snow producer for the forecast area if it wasn’t moving so fast. Another disturbance on it’s tale will keep the nature of this pattern rather progressive. I’m expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow to fall over the Philadelphia metro through the southern New York City metro and Long Island by early Tuesday morning. I don’t foresee any boundary layer issues and some weak mesoscale banding may develop over coastal New Jersey and Long Island. I think much of Connecticut and the Hudson Valley will miss any impacts from this disturbance.
The third and final disturbance in this trough is the strongest with the latest 00Z guidance hinting at the potential for the short wave to close off into a 500 MB upper low off of Virginia. If that was to happen, then snow will work it’s way into the forecast area, especially the Philadelphia metro and New Jersey coast on Tuesday night. I don’t expect that as the trough is lifting northeast and a new pattern change will begin to unfold, but this disturbance is rather strong and there will be plenty of moisture and cold air available to make the possibility worth noting for now.
That’s it for tonight! Thank you everyone who shared observations! Please continue to send them in, especially those over Long Island and Connecticut!