A Cold Start But Mild Pattern On The Way

5:46 AM

Today is probably going to be the coldest day of the next 7 as high pressure will move right over the forecast area today.  Clear skies can be expected today through tonight as the ridge axis passes over the region.  Winds will remain from the northwest around 5 to 15 mph this afternoon, falling to around 5 mph by this evening. 

By tomorrow, the high pressure system will move off the coast and remain off the Southeast coast through Saturday as well.  This will produce a southwesterly wind over the forecast area and a push of warm air into the region.  The strengthening warm air advection will likely produce fog over parts of the forecast area on Friday morning and Saturday morning.  The influence of the fresh snow pack combined with the push of warm air will act like a low level warm front over the forecast area, producing an area of stratus over the region.  Fog is a stratus cloud, by the way.  Anyway, the good news is that the fog should burn off by late morning to early afternoon over the entire region.  The MOS guidance maybe slightly too warm in some spots due to the fog, but I feel the temperature range is about right, so went with MOS for this forecast period.

Mild conditions will continue on Sunday ahead of a cold front.  Winds will increase from the southwest to around 10 to 15 mph in the morning, which will limit any issue with fog.  At any rate, the warm air on Saturday will likely have a huge impact on the amount of snow on the ground anyway.  Cloud will increase through the day on Sunday with showers by the evening.  The cold front will have a fresh Polar air mass behind it, supported by a strong 50/50 low over eastern Canada.  

Going into the region of the week, the power of a developing negative NAO and an impressive 50/50 low will be observed.  While temperatures will certainly moderate, this pattern could have been significantly warmer.  The storm track for the most part will run from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, which means the majority of the precipitation will remain well to the west of the forecast area.  High pressure will sit over eastern Ontario/western Quebec through the entire forecast period, producing a northerly wind over the forecast area.  While 850 MB temperatures warm significantly and would produce high temperatures in the upper 40′s to mid 50′s rather easily, the high pressure to the north will keep a cooler air mass in place from 950 MB to the surface.  This means that some cloudy days can be expected for the mid and end of next week for much of the forecast area.

Tags: advection, air mass, Albany, Allentown, amount of snow, amounts, area, Atlantic City, axis, Belmar, Bport, canada, clear skies, clouds, coast, cold, coldest day, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, early afternoon, eastern canada, evenings, Fall, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecast period, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, fresh snow, friday morning, front, guidance, Hartford, high, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, mild conditions, moderation, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north norther, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, polar air, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, quebec, Reading, Ridge, ridge axis, Scranton, showers, snow, snow on the ground, snow pack, Southeast, Southeast Coast, Southwest, southwesterly wind, Storm, storm track, storms, stratus cloud, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperature range, temperatures, warm, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills