NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

A Look At March

4:51 PM

The month of March is usually a month of transition from winter to spring.  It’s the month of college basket ball dreams.  Where everyones baseball team is in first place and anything is possible.  It’s also a month where one week 12 inches can fall on the ground and the next, temperatures are in the 50’s with flooding issues.  Well, we have 12 inches on the ground already for many locations thanks to this morning’s winter storm, so lets examine what this month has in store for us.

There are two main players that will drive the evolution of the storm track for this month.  The first will be the well established trough over Eastern Canada that is associated with the Polar and Arctic jet stream.  This trough will feature storm tracks generally from fast moving, yet intense low pressure systems called Alberta Clippers.  These low pressure system will bring light precipitation, but a strong push of Arctic and/or Polar air into the Great Lakes, Northeast, and northern Mid Atlantic.  The other feature will be the strong Pacific jet stream that will that will enhance the sub tropical jet stream and southern branch of the Polar jet stream.  The strengthening Pacific jet will be driven by the redevelopment of La Nina over the south Pacific.  When the Pacific jet is roaring, expect a wave of Pacific air to rush through the CONUS, which will have a strong moderating influence on the air masses in Canada.  When the trough over the West digs into southern California and the Southwest, watch for the Southeast ridge to build and force the storm track to the north of the forecast area.

These two competing players in the 500 MB pattern will combine to produce some potential interesting weather events for the forecast area.  The trough over eastern Canada will keep much of the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and much of the New York City metro on the cool side.  While the storm track likely will not yield itself to produce significant winters for much of the region, there will be potential for isentropic lifting events, which could lead to storms that will feature a mix of snow, ice, and rain.  The storm track likely will waver between the Delaware coast (when the trough over eastern Canada is the dominant feature) and the central Hudson Valley ( when the ridge over the Southeast is enhanced).  The rest of the month likely will not feature Miller A or Miller B type storm events, however I can’t rule out the potential completely in periods of pattern transition.  

So, expect a month with generally below normal temperatures especially north of the Philadelphia metro.  The storm track will likely become more active with the near normal precipitation expected for most locations and above normal precipitation possible over the Hudson Valley into Connecticut.  There will be a growing potential for the flooding of rivers over the forecast area along with a wary eye on ice concerns.  While the first two-thirds of the month appear to be the most active, I think towards the end of March there will be a strong influence from the Pacific jet stream and a storm track that will shift well to the north into the Great Lakes and New England.

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