NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

A Major Cold Fronts, Front And Back

6:16 AM

The upper level pattern continues to evolve over the next seven days, but the theme from this winter remains true, with a bit of a twist.  With the northern branch of the Polar jet stream continuing to lift north, the influence of the negative EPO pattern will continue to weaken, however the trough that forms over eastern Canada will have a different influence on the forecast area than seen so far this year.  

The southern branch of the jet stream, the Sub Tropical Branch, will carve a trough into the West and build a ridge over the Mississippi Valley and Southeast.  The influence of the trough over eastern Canada will lead to a phenomium called a “back door cold front”, which is a cold front that moves into the forecast area from the northeast with an air mass originally from the Canadian Maritimes.  This type of air mass will produce cloudy, cool conditions; which is not unusual for March and early April and a passage of right so to speak for Spring.  So lets break this down!

A strong cold front will approach from the Great Lakes on Thursday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will soar into the 50’s and 60’s ahead of the cold front on Thursday afternoon.  However, the atmosphere will not be unstable enough to support severe weather.  The cold front will initially move quickly towards the forecast area, however the changing upper level pattern will slowly the progression of the cold front to the east, which will allow showers to linger into the forecast area on Friday morning.

Strong high pressure will dominate the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday with clear skies and near normal temperatures.  However, the position of the trough by Sunday afternoon will set up the development of the back door cold front which will begin to slide south and west into the forecast area on Sunday evening with overcast skies, scattered showers, and cool temperatures.  The best way to describe this air mass is cloudy and damp.

Tags: air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, back door, Belmar, Bridgrt, canada, canadian maritimes, clear skies, cold, cold front, cold fronts, Connecticut, continuation, dominance, dominants, doors, east, eastern canada, epo, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday morning, front, Great Lakes, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, lifting, Long Island, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, normals, north, northe, Northeast, northern, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Polar Jet Stream, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Ridge, s, saturday and sunday, Scranton, seven days, severe weather, showers, slides, south, Southeast, sunday afternoon, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, thursday afternoon, Tropical, tropics, Trough, valleys, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter