6:53 AM

The disturbance that brought a few scattered showers to southern New Jersey is quickly exiting the region this morning as clouds quickly exit into the Atlantic.  While the low pressure system was not strong, it was still able to keep temperatures cool and skies overcast over southern New Jersey.  

High pressure is building into the forecast area with clearing skies from northwest to southeast.  Eventually, clear skies can be expected throughout the forecast area with light winds from the northeast around 5 to 10 mph.  Temperatures will rebound this afternoon into the upper 40′s along the immediate coast to upper 50′s over the interior.  Note that the northeasterly winds and eventually easterly winds by this evening will help keep the coast generally cooler than the interior, much like a strong summer sea breeze but on a larger scale.

High pressure will continue to move to the southeast of the forecast area tonight and tomorrow with a south and southwesterly wind developing over the forecast area increasing to 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will average near to slightly above average with lows in the mid to upper 30′s and highs in the mid 50′s to lower 60′s for highs.  

A very strong cold front will drive through the forecast area on Thursday.  This cold front and the low pressure system associated with it, will be a key driver in the pattern for the weekend and into early next week.  While the cold front moves through the forecast area, the low pressure system over Canada will intensify in response to the development of a strong upper level low.  The negative EPO pattern, although blunted by the natural retreat of the Polar jet stream, will support the intensification of the trough over Eastern Canada, which will have significant impact on the forecast area, which I will discuss in the medium range post.  

As for the cold front itself, model guidance still brings the cold front through the forecast area between 8AM and 12PM on Thursday morning, thus limiting the degree of warming ahead of the cold front.  If the cold front is slightly slower than currently forecasted, then temperatures will have the potential to mimic the highs from Wednesday.  At this time, the majority of the PVA and upper level dynamics will be focused north of the forecast area, as such while I do expect a period of heavy rainfall from the showers, I don’t expect any significant convective or thunderstorm activity.  Besides, the atmosphere will not be unstable enough to support such development.  Winds will veer from the southwest to northwest around 10 to 20 mph.  Meanwhile high temperatures will be blunted by the cold front passage, ranging from the mid 40′s to mid 50′s for highs.

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