7:31 PM

A warm front over the Southeast is moving north towards the southern Mid Atlantic coast.  A weak northeast2disturbance along the warm front is racing towards the DELMARVA Peninsula with an area of showers.  The lifting associated with this disturbance is weakening, however along with overcast skies a few showers can be expected tonight into tomorrow morning as the disturbance moves off the coast.

Model guidance is also consolidating around the idea of an occluded front forming over the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday morning.  When an occluded front forms, the warmest segment of the atmosphere is lifted above the two cooler layers.  In this case; the warm, moist contenential tropical air mass over the Southeast will be elevated over the cool Marine air mass that has been over the forecast area and the cool, Polar air mass over the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes.  The combination of these air masses produces an environment where steady, heavy rain can develop along with elevated thunderstorms.  There is a growing risk for embedded severe thunderstorms will be a threat over southern New Jersey on Sunday as this is where the atmosphere is likely to be the most unstable.  

If severe weather becomes likely, much like the winter, the website will go into “storm mode” with constant updates and a post for observations.