Weekend will start windy but dry

7:18 AM

The low pressure system that will send a strong cold front through the region on Friday evening will also support very windy conditions on Saturday.  The low pressure system will move into New England as high pressure over the Ohio Valley builds into the East coast.  We’ve seen this before, haven’t we?  Expect Saturday to be windy but dry with sustained winds from the west and northwest around 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts over the Hudson Valley and Connecticut where the pressure gradient will be stronger.  The good news is that except for potentially a few stray showers rotating around the upper low, much of the forecast area will have a dry Saturday.  Temperatures will average near normal in the lower to upper 50′s.  

However, this is a progressive pattern, and as a result, high pressure will not last long over the forecast area.  The high will slide to the east of the region by Sunday afternoon as winds begin to veer to the south.

The storm track will repeat itself on Monday as a strong disturbance over the southern Plains races northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast.  The low pressure system will move quickly, limiting the amount of moisture that will be entrained ahead of the cold front.  However, there will be plenty of PVA to support lifting along the cold front on Monday afternoon.  Model guidance between the GFS and ECMWF does differ slightly in surface representation, so I took a blend of the guidance for Monday.  Showers and thunderstorms can be expected in the afternoon as the cold front quickly moves through the forecast area.  The cold front and low pressure system will clear the region by the late evening hours.

The low pressure system will intensify on Monday night and produced a closed upper low over eastern Canada.  As a result, a strong northwesterly flow aloft is expected on Tuesday, which will produce partly cloudy skies, cool temperatures, and a risk of a few isolated showers in the afternoon.

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