NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Great today, wet tomorrow

8:13 AM

High pressure is doing an excellent job this morning providing the forecast area with great Spring conditions for the entire region.  High pressure will continue to provide the region with clear skies, light winds, and temperatures near normal.  However, while today will be very pleasant; tomorrow will be the exact opposite.

An area of low pressure at the surface and at 500 MB is rapidly organizing over the central and northern Plains this morning.  Currently, the moisture advection with this low pressure system is frankly not all that impressive.  However, moisture is starting to pool over the Gulf Coast and along the Atlantic coast of Florida and Georgia.  Once the upper low and surface low starts to tap into this moisture, the precipitation shield with this low pressure system will rapidly blossom over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight. 

By tomorrow morning, the upper low and surface low will be positioned over the eastern Great Lakes.  An occluded front will extend through eastern Pennsylvania with a triple point developing south of Philadelphia.  A warm front will extend along the New Jersey coast and southeast of Long Island with a cold front extending southward off the Southeast coast.  The upper low will cause the mid level and upper level trough to tilt to the negative, which will have a significant impact on the forecast area.

First, the position of the upper level trough will produce a southeast orientation to the wind vectors from the lower level to the upper levels from the southeast.  This orientation produces a strong moisture advection over the forecast area, and will intensify through the day as the storm slowly lifts north and east.  The strong PVA associated with the trough will support the development of a secondary low over southern New Jersey, which will enhance heavy rainfall over much of the forecast area.  

As for severe weather, the best dynamics for severe weather will be found to the south of the forecast area and over the Atlantic.  However, the mid level winds from the Atlantic into the region will cause thunderstorms to move in from the east and become elevated to the north and east of the warm front.  This will produce a potential for very heavy downpours, strong down draft wind gusts, and frequent lightning in the embedded thunderstorms of the precipitation shield.  Rainfall amounts will average from a half an inch to one and one half inches, however locations over Long Island and Connecticut have the potential to exceed two inches as the moisture advection intensifies in the afternoon and evening.  

One of the few factors that could limit rain is the intensification of thunderstorms over the Southeast that could rob moisture from the developing secondary low pressure system.  If this should happen, then significantly less rain can be expected.  At this time, there is no hint of this on the model guidance, but the potential is there.

The low pressure system will lift north into New England and back towards northern New York on Tuesday with windy conditions, partly cloudy skies, and widely scattered showers.  A fresh Polar air mass will build into the forecast area with temperatures averaging below normal.

Rest of the Week:

The upper low will continue to influence the region through Thursday with a persistent northwesterly flow over the forecast area and much of the Mid Atlantic.  Disturbances will rotate through the region with a risk of scattered showers and partly cloudy skies through the week.  Temperatures will average below normal through this week with highs in the upper 40’s to upper 50’s.

A strong low pressure system out of the southern Plains will drive towards the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday.  The low pressure system will weaken under the influence of the stronger upper trough over eastern Canada.  Eventually, this low pressure system will be absorbed by the trough over eastern Canada, however before that happens the low pressure system will bring another shot of rainfall to the forecast area.  

The low pressure system will exit quickly on Saturday with partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures.

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