1:59 PM

This afternoon, the disturbance over the southern Mississippi Valley is pushing towards the Tennessee Valley.  As a result, a surface low pressure system is quickly organizing over the Southeast.  As you can see with the radar, precipitation is quickly developing over southern Pennsylvania through the Ohio Valley while there is clearly a low level circulation developing over Alabama as showers and thunderstorms spiral counter clockwise over the Southeast.  The water vapor satellite image this afternoon shows plenty of moisture moving up the East coast.  As the upper level disturbance moves towards the Mid Atlantic thisevening, lifting will be enhanced over the forecast area while additional moisture moves in from the Atlantic.  The combination of the upper level disturbance, strong moisture advection, and the stationary front just to the south of New Jersey will support an environment favorable for heavy rainfall through Friday evening.  The latest 12Z model guidance suggest that the entire forecast area can expect an easy 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with some locations receiving as much as 3 to 4 inches in area of heavy downpours.  Much of the southern Philadelphia metro, southern and central New Jersey, through Long Island can expect rainfall over 2 inches.  The northwestern suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City can expect 1 to 2 inches with lesser amounts over the northern interior.   Rain will increase in coverage and intensity after 2:30 PM and will increase in intensity through the evening hours.  The heaviest rainfall can be expected Friday morning through Friday afternoon as the surface low passes through southern New Jersey.  The rain will taper off by Friday evening with clearing conditions on Friday night.  Small stream and urban flooding is possible throughout the forecast area through Friday night.

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