Heavy rain today, beautiful conditions for the weekend
7:10 AM
Sometimes in life there are important trade offs that we must make. In terms of weather conditions, the forecast area will go through a very wet, raw Friday to get to two days of exceptional weather conditions this weekend.
This morning, an area of low pressure developing over central North Carolina. As the upper disturbance moves through the Mid Atlantic this afternoon, the trough axis within the short wave trough will tilt to the negative, which will have an important influence on the developing low pressure system. The short wave trough, by the way, is the remnants of the once closed low over the Southern Plains from a few days back. At any rate, the negative tilt will force the surface low to slow down off the New Jersey coast this afternoon while divergent upper level winds will support strong lifting over much of the Mid Atlantic. Strong PVA will center itself over the forecast area which will also enhance lifting. A low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB will strengthen from the south and southeast, providing ample moisture for the forecast area. All of these factors will combine to increase the intensity of the light rain currently falling over the forecast area this morning. Also, the lifting will intensify the surface low pressure system, which will increase the northeasterly winds over the forecast area, much like a Nor’Easter in the late fall or winter.
The good news is that the main long wave trough (the dominant cyclonic circulation in this pattern) is still centered over
western Ontario and the western Great Lakes, which will force the strengthening surface low into the Canadian Marines by tonight. Note the red colors over the mid Mississippi Valley and Mid West this morning. That is a signal for sinking air and the developing high pressure system that will dominate the weather conditions through this weekend. A flat ridge will develop over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic through this weekend, which will keep disturbances rotation around the trough over Ontario to the north over northern New England. Through the weekend, the trough will also weaken, with a strong trough developing over the western Plains and Rockies. Surface high pressure will remain in control through Sunday with clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures.
The developing trough, currently over the Rockies, will have a significant influence over the forecast area through next week. A weak cold front will drop through the forecast area early on Monday morning, only to rebound under the influence of developing low pressure over the central Plains and eventually the western Great Lakes as a warm front on Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The lifting with this warm front is not very impressive and will be driven by the strength of warm air advection which will enhanced by the developing southwesterly flow from the surface to the upper levels. In short, most locations will have partly cloudy skies with a risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. Not a complete wash out, but still a nuesiance to plan around for outdoor activities. A cold front will attempt to move through the forecast area as a surface low pressure system moves towards eastern Ontario and eventually Quebec. The cold front will have weakening support and will eventually stall on Wednesday afternoon over the forecast area. The cold front will produce wide spread showers and thunderstorms with a potential for severe thunderstorms. Another cold front will attempt to move through the forecast area on Thursday with slightly stronger upper level support, but will likely fail as well. Finally, the main upper level low associated with these cold front will move towards Ontario and Quebec on Thursday night and Friday, which will force the strongest of the three cold fronts through the region with additional widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
So basically we are looking at a pattern repeat with a threat of showers and thunderstorms through the week and temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal. This pattern would also suggest clearing conditions by Friday evening and through the next weekend as well.
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